Playoff Scenarios for Every Team
By: Ryan Moreland (@ryanmoreland)
We have one week left until the playoffs start and the playoff scenarios are what everyone is talking about. I didn’t want to dedicate my entire column to playoff scenarios, so I separated it. Before we jump in, let’s get a quick refresher on how the playoffs will work.
Playoff Format
16 teams will make the CFSL playoffs this season. 14 will come from the top seven teams from each power conference. The 15-seed will be the MAC Champion. The 16th seed will be decided by a league-wide vote. Therefore, anyone that I say is eliminated in this article is only eliminated from the automatic playoff bid. They could still be voted in by the fan vote.
Here are the tiebreakers in order.
| Order | Tiebreakers |
| 1 | Conference Record |
| 2 | Head-to-Head |
| 3 | Record vs common conference opponents |
| 4 | Point differential vs common conference opponents |
| 5 | Record vs common overall opponents |
| 6 | Point differential vs common overall opponents |
| 7 | Overall record |
| 8 | Overall point differential |
Now, let’s get to the scenarios.
B1G
We will start with the current conference standings. These might look different than what you see on the league standings page. That is because that list doesn’t take the tiebreakers into effect. Below are the actual current standings based on the league’s tiebreakers.
| Current Rank | Team | Conference Record (Overall Record) |
| 1 | Oklahoma State | 4-1 (5-2) |
| 2 | Oklahoma | 4-1 (5-2) |
| 3 | Notre Dame | 3-2 (5-2) |
| 4 | Michigan | 3-2 (3-4) |
| 5 | Illinois | 3-2 (4-3) |
| 6 | Texas | 3-2 (5-2) |
| 7 | Boise State | 2-3 (3-4) |
| 8 | Ohio State | 2-3 (3-4) |
| 9 | Clemson | 1-4 (3-4) |
| 10 | Oregon | 0-5 (0-7) |
The Race For the Conference Title
The B1G conference title will come down to Bedlam. Whoever wins the game between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State will be the B1G Champion.
Who Has Already Clinched
The teams that follow are guaranteed to be in the playoffs no matter what happens. They are Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Michigan, and Illinois. For the two Oklahoma schools, they are simply out of reach for the bubble teams to tie them. The bubble teams could tie Notre Dame, Michigan, and Illinois. However, each of these schools has a win over Boise State or Ohio State (or both in Illinois’ case). This means that they can’t fall behind 7th in the rankings, because these teams would always be behind them.
Already Eliminated
Only two teams have no chance of getting into the top seven. They are Oregon and Clemson. Oregon has no chance to catch up to anyone in the league. Clemson could still tie Ohio State and Boise State in conference record. However, Clemson lost head-to-head to both teams, so they would lose both tiebreakers.
Again, both teams have a chance to get in with the fan vote for the 16th spot.
On the Bubble
The battle for the last two spots has widdled down to three teams. With that said, one team seems pretty safe at the moment. The other two are neck and neck. Let’s start with the safe team.
Texas ends the season with Clemson. If they win, they are in. And even if they lose, they are still likely in. The only way the Longhorns wouldn’t make the top seven is if Texas loses, Boise State beats Notre Dame, Ohio State beats Michigan, and Illinois wins or loses in a close game (Illinois holds a tiebreaker over Texas in point differential against common opponents by 22 points). Even if the stars aligned and all this happened, you would have to think that Texas would be a top choice for the vote-in spot.
Most likely the final spot will come down to Ohio State and Boise State. Boise State has a pretty big advantage here. These two teams are currently tied in conference record and record vs common conference opponent. The tiebreaker then falls to point differential vs common conference opponent. Boise holds a 68-point advantage over Ohio State in this tiebreaker. Since the league has a 50-point mercy rule, there is no way to overcome a 68-point advantage in point differential in a single game.
To put this plainly, Ohio State cannot win a tie with Boise State. The only way for the Buckeyes to get the automatic bid is for them to beat Michigan and for Boise State to lose to Notre Dame. If they both win, both lose, or Boise wins and OSU loses, Boise State punches their ticket.
SEC
We will start with the current conference standings. These might look different than what you see on the league standings page. That is because that list doesn’t take the tiebreakers into effect. Below are the actual current standings based on the league’s tiebreakers.
| Current Rank | Team | Conference Record (Overall Record) |
| 1 | Alabama | 5-0 (5-2) |
| 2 | Kentucky | 4-1 (5-2) |
| 3 | West Virginia | 3-2 (5-2) |
| 4 | North Carolina | 3-2 (4-3) |
| 5 | Florida State | 3-2 (4-3) |
| 6 | Miami | 2-3 (4-3) |
| 7 | Florida | 2-3 (4-3) |
| 8 | Georiga | 2-3 (4-3) |
| 9 | Auburn | 1-4 (3-4) |
| 10 | Pittsburgh | 0-5 (1-6) |
The Race For the Conference Title
The SEC’s race for the conference title is less exciting because it has already been decided. Alabama is the Season 18 SEC Champion. They could still tie Kentucky but Bama beat Kentucky earlier this season, so they hold the tiebreaker. This is Alabama’s third conference title and second straight title.
Who Has Already Clinched
The teams that follow are guaranteed to be in the playoffs no matter what happens. They are Alabama, Kentucky, West Virginia, North Carolina, Florida State, and Miami. Alabama and Kentucky’s clinch is obvious, but I will explain the others.
West Virginia has a win over Florida. So no matter what happens this week, they would stay above Florida. This means that the Mountaineers can’t reach eighth in the conference. The same is true for North Carolina (who can’t fall behind Miami) and Florida State (who can’t fall behind Georgia).
Miami is slightly trickier. They have head-to-head wins over Florida and Georgia, so they win those tiebreakers. The only way Miami would be able to fall to eighth is if both Florida and Georiga win this week and Miami lost. The problem is that Florida and Georgia play each other this week. That makes it impossible for both teams to lose.
Already Eliminated
Pittsburgh and Auburn have no chance of making the top seven in the SEC. Auburn could potentially tie Miami, Florida, and/or Georgia, but they wouldn’t be able to beat them in tiebreakers. However, there is always the vote-in. A win over Alabama would give them a good shot a winning that vote.
On the Bubble
This one is simple. Florida and Georgia are the only teams bubble and they play each other. One team will win this game and punch their ticket. One team will lose and will pray that they get voted in by the league.
MAC
The Race for the Conference Title
The conference title is the only race that matters in the MAC. Only one MAC team will get an automatic bid into the playoffs. And that race is already over. With Toledo’s commanding win over Ohio, they have won the MAC. Eastern Michigan could still tie the Rockets, but since EMU lost to Toledo, they would also lose the tiebreaker.
The MAC belongs to Toledo, but remember that more than one MAC team could make the playoffs. The fan vote is open to all teams that didn’t make it already. So there is still a lot to play for this week for teams like Eastern Michigan and Bowling Green.
