By: Ryan Moreland (@ryanmoreland)
There was another week that saw plenty of movement on the JTR QB ratings. Thanks to some great games (looking at you MAC QBs) there is plenty of movement. As always, thanks to Tony Papol (@SGEasty) and James Bayse (@jbayse1). Here are the results.
How JTR Works
JTR ranks players by their comparison to the league average using as unbiased stats as possible. By unbiased stats, we mean stats that don’t show a preference for one style of play over another. For example, we would expect a quarterback in an air raid system to throw the ball more often than a quarterback in a multiple set. So comparing the two based on completions wouldn’t be fair. Once we determine stats that we believe to be unbiased, we create a league average. Outperforming the league average earns a player positive points. Stats that fall below the league average will earn a player negative points. Points for each stat are calculated and combined with a base rating given to each player. The combination results in a player’s JTR metric score. 0 is the worst possible score and 100 is the best possible score.
For QBs, the stats we chose to use are completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdown percentage, interception percentage, and unique rushing index. The rushing index attempts to exclude sacks from a quarterback’s rush totals to get a truer sense of them as a runner. Also, QBs cannot take negative points from the rushing index (outside of fumbles). This is because a running ability for a quarterback is a plus, but not a requirement.
After much consideration, this week we added passing yards per game to the metric. However, YPG is not weighted as heavily as the other passing stats to ensure that pass-happy QBs are not overvalued.
JTR is not a predictive metric. It has no ability to tell the future, only measure what a player has done up to that point.
Note: This is a complicated system that is difficult to explain in an easily digestible way. If you have more questions about how it works, please reach out. We would be more than happy to answer your questions.
JTR QB Rankings
|Rank (Last Week)||Player||Team||JTR Score (Change)|
|1 (3)||Ludwig Friedman||Eastern Michigan||99.455 (+5.768)|
|2 (2)||Ryan Moreland||Oklahoma State||95.846 (+0.936)|
|3 (1)||Moses King||Kentucky||95.133 (-1.781)|
|4 (4)||Sam Dobbins||Michigan||87.433 (-2.789)|
|5 (8)||Mateo Walker||Miami||81.828 (-1.897)|
|6 (7)||Cece Range||Alabama||81.257 (-5.174)|
|7 (6)||Derrick Power||Oklahoma||80.425 (-6.603)|
|8 (10)||Del Toro||Ohio||79.290 (+2.811)|
|9 (12)||Ryan Ravenhill||Florida State||78.048 (+3.008)|
|10 (17)||Avery Ware||Texas||77.929 (+9.798)|
|11 (13)||Logan Radloff||Ohio State||77.056 (+2.788)|
|12 (9)||Topher Foreman||Boise State||75.393 (-4.43)|
|13 (11)||Baker Thomas||Auburn||74.795 (-1.334)|
|14 (16)||Tony Ellis||West Virginia||72.460 (+3.523)|
|15 (14)||Helix Myers||Pittsburgh||72.385 (-0.883)|
|16 (5)||McKade Alber||Toledo||71.364 (-17.202)|
|17 (15)||Tobias Johnson||Kent State||70.528 (-0.602)|
|18 (19)||Ray Flash||Georgia||68.121 (+2.172)|
|19 (20)||Leisa Pink||Bowling Green||62.244 (+0.035)|
|20 (21)||Loki Gunderson||Clemson||59.310 (-0.566)|
|21 (18)||Terry Olliff||Northern Illinois||58.477 (-7.837)|
|22 (22)||Dylan Shumate||Illinois||58.034 (+0.480)|
|23 (23)||Charlie Sammons||Notre Dame||54.847 (-0.761)|
|24 (26)||Ayden Martinez||North Carolina||54.548 (+6.034)|
|25 (25)||Shaker Mayflower||Florida||54.060 (+2.665)|
|26 (24)||Brantley Gauci||Oregon||50.658 (+2.144)|
That’s right, for the first time the MAC will take over the top spot in the leaderboard. Eastern Michigan’s Ludwig Friedman threw for nearly 600 yards and nine touchdowns this week against Toledo. He had a total of eight touchdown passes in the first two weeks combined. This caused him to jump Moses King and Ryan Moreland to take the top spot. Interestingly, the top four kept the same names, and only swapped first and third from last week.
Friedman might have taken the top spot, but he wasn’t this week’s most improved QB. That honor belongs to Texas Longhorn Avery Ware. Ware had the best game of his young career against Boise State last week. He threw for 400 yards and four touchdowns while completing 81% of his passes. He also added two rushing touchdowns. His nine-point bump is the second largest the JTR QB rankings have ever seen and will be good enough to propel him into the top ten.
The upper middle of the league is coming for the top. This week spots three to seven all lost points. Meanwhile, the QBs ranking eight to 11 all took nice jumps forward. There is no way to know if this trend will continue, but what it does show is the gap between the top and the second level is shrinking. There are three weeks left in the regular season. Can these QBs continue their push toward the top or will the names at the top end once again separate themselves?
The bottom is also rising. This is the first time since the rankings started that there is not a single QB ranking in the 40s. Four of the bottom five saw improvements in their scores.
Lastly, I noted in the first week that only two QBs were positive in every stat category. Last week that number jumped to five. Well, after this week we are down to three. Ryan Moreland, Mateo Walker, and Ludwig Friedman are the only QBs that are currently not taking negative points in any category. This is the third straight week that has happened for Moreland and Walker. It is the second straight week for Friedman.