By: Ryan Moreland (@ryanmoreland)
Season 18 is officially underway and that means the return of the JTR Quarterback Rankings. For those who are new to the league, the JTR Rankings are an advanced metric developed by Tony Papol (@SGEasty), James Bayse (@jbayse1), and myself. Let’s review how it works before we dive in.
How JTR Works
JTR ranks players by comparison to the league average using as unbiased stats as possible. By unbiased stats, we mean stats that don’t show a preference for one style of play over another. For example, we expect a quarterback in an air raid system to throw the ball more often than a quarterback in a multiple set. So comparing the two based on completions wouldn’t be fair. Once we determine stats that we believe to be unbiased, we create a league average. Outperforming the league average earns a player positive points. Stats that fall below the league average will earn a player negative points. Points for each stat are calculated and combined with a base rating given to each player. The combination results in a player’s JTR metric score. 0 is the worst possible score and 100 is the best possible score.
For QBs, the stats we chose to use are completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdown percentage, interception percentage, passing yards per game, and unique rushing index. The rushing index attempts to exclude sacks from a quarterback’s rush totals to get a more accurate sense of them as a runner. Also, QBs cannot take negative points from the rushing index (outside of fumbles). This is because a running ability for a quarterback is a plus, but not a requirement.
JTR is not a predictive metric. It cannot tell the future. It can only measure what a player has done up to that point.
Note: This is a complicated system that is difficult to explain in an easily digestible way. If you have more questions about how it works, please reach out. We would be more than happy to answer your questions.
|8||Del Toro||Notre Dame||76.599|
|10||Ryan Moreland||Oklahoma State||71.748|
|11||Zeus Claydon||Florida State||70.522|
|13||Sean Keohane||Kent State||69.615|
|14||Greg Cooksey||Eastern Michigan||57.825|
|16||Terry Olliff||Northern Illinois||54.946|
|18||Andrei Belov||Ohio State||53.664|
|21||Ayden Martinez||North Carolina||52.847|
|22||McKade Alber||Boise State||48.229|
|24||Kyson Carey||Bowling Green||36.906|
|26||Tony Ellis||West Virginia||23.836|
Loki Gunderson finds himself at the top of the list thanks to a brilliant (albeit losing) effort against Illinois this week. He completed over 83% of his passes which was the best in the CFSL. He was also one of only five quarterbacks to make it through the opening week without throwing an interception. These facts, combined with the second-best yards per attempt and the eighth-most yards, gave Gunderson the top spot.
As you will notice, there is a large gap between the first and 26th scores. We have seen this every year. The JTR metric is a comparative stat. Meaning, that not only does your performance matter, but how it compares to the rest of the quarterbacks. We all know that one bad (or great) game doesn’t make your season. Players like West Virginia’s Tony Ellis will bounce back and it will be very difficult for players like Loki Gunderson to match this performance each week. Therefore, the gap always shrinks as the season moves on.