JTR QB Rankings: Season 18, Week 3

Ryan Moreland · September 18, 2023

tony-ellis

By: Ryan Moreland (@ryanmoreland)

How JTR Works

JTR ranks players by comparison to the league average using as unbiased stats as possible. By unbiased stats, we mean stats that don’t show a preference for one style of play over another. For example, we expect a quarterback in an air raid system to throw the ball more often than a quarterback in a multiple set. So comparing the two based on completions wouldn’t be fair. Once we determine stats that we believe to be unbiased, we create a league average. Outperforming the league average earns a player positive points. Stats that fall below the league average will earn a player negative points. Points for each stat are calculated and combined with a base rating given to each player. The combination results in a player’s JTR metric score. 0 is the worst possible score and 100 is the best possible score.

For QBs, the stats we chose to use are completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdown percentage, interception percentage, passing yards per game, and unique rushing index. The rushing index attempts to exclude sacks from a quarterback’s rush totals to get a more accurate sense of them as a runner. Also, QBs cannot take negative points from the rushing index (outside of fumbles). This is because a running ability for a quarterback is a plus, but not a requirement.

JTR is not a predictive metric. It cannot tell the future. It can only measure what a player has done up to that point.

Note: This is a complicated system that is difficult to explain in an easily digestible way. If you have more questions about how it works, please reach out. We would be more than happy to answer your questions.

JTR Rankings

Rank (Last Week)PlayerTeamJTR Score (Change)
1 (2)Loki GundersonClemson99.626 (+5.620)
2 (8)Del ToroNotre Dame87.987 (+2.345)
3 (7)Mateo WalkerMiami84.796 (+3.022)
4 (1)Shaker MayflowerPittsburgh84.551 (-14.338)
5 (5)Dylan ShumateIllinois82.639 (-5.794)
6 (4)Zeus ClaydonFlorida State82.166 (-9.285)
7 (9)Ludwig FriedmanGeorgia82.130 (-0.629)
8 (11)Derrick PowerOklahoma80.663 (+5.069)
9 (10)Baker ThomasAuburn79.584 (-2.925)
10 (6)Avery WareTexas77.366 (-10.550)
11 (14)Topher ForemanMichigan77.094 (+6.381)
12 (3)Charlie SammonsKentucky76.832 (-16.250)
13 (19)Sean KeohaneKent State75.687 (+9.038)
14 (17)Beau DaleFlorida75.335 (+8.309)
15 (18)Ayden MartinezNorth Carolina74.336 (+7.616)
16 (12)Ryan MorelandOklahoma State71.208 (-2.695)
17 (15)Brantley GauciOregon70.701 (+2.851)
18 (21)Greg CookseyEastern Michigan66.459 (+7.316)
19 (22)Cece RangeAlabama65.861 (+8.038)
20 (16)McKade AlberBoise State63.891 (-3.329)
21 (24)Tony EllisWest Virginia63.778 (+12.948)
22 (13)Andrei BelovOhio State60.965 (-13.042)
23 (23)Sam DobbinsToledo55.525 (+4.561)
24 (20)Terry OlliffNorthern Illinois55.468 (-3.981)
25 (25)Kyson CareyBowling Green44.564 (+1.28)
26 (26)Owen DartOhio42.893 (+3.904)

Findings

West Virginia QB Tony Ellis had this week’s most significant growth in score. Ellis had 501 total yards and six total touchdowns this week against Ohio. This gave him a near-13-point jump in his JTR score.

Despite Ellis’ fantastic performance and his large score improvement, he was not this week’s biggest mover in rank. That honor belongs to Notre Dame’s Del Toro and Kent State’s Sean Keohane. Both players moved up six spots in the leaderboard this week.

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