JTR QB Rankings: Season 19, Week 1

By: Ryan Moreland (@ryanmoreland)

The wait is over folks! The CFSL is back in full swing, which means the JTR QB Rankings are back too. For those new to the league, the JTR is a player rating metric for quarterbacks that compares them to the league average (more on that in a bit). Let’s dive in.

How JTR Works

JTR ranks players by comparison to the league average using unbiased stats. By unbiased stats, we mean stats that don’t show a preference for one style of play over another. For example, we expect a quarterback in an air raid system to throw the ball more often than a quarterback in a multiple set. So comparing the two based on completions wouldn’t be fair. Once we determine stats that we believe to be unbiased, we create a league average. Outperforming the league average earns a player positive points. Stats that fall below the league average will earn a player negative points. Points for each stat are calculated and combined with a base rating given to each player. The combination results in a player’s JTR metric score. 0 is the worst possible score and 100 is the best possible score.

For QBs, the stats we chose to use are completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdown percentage, interception percentage, passing yards per game, and unique rushing index. The rushing index excludes sacks from a quarterback’s rush totals to get a more accurate sense of them as a runner. Also, QBs cannot take negative points from the rushing index (outside of fumbles). This is because a running ability for a quarterback is a plus, but not a requirement.

JTR is not a predictive metric. It cannot tell the future. It can only measure what a player has done up to that point.

Findings

There is a lot to unpack here. Let’s start with congratulations. Penn State’s Sean Keohane performed incredibly against Oklahoma State this week. So good that he stands at the top of the leaderboard with a near-perfect score. Florida’s Beau Dale was the only other player to break into the 90s after his game against Auburn. Congrats to both of these talented QBs.

Now, let’s get into the scores themselves. There is a large gap in scores which is to be expected. This is not to say Keohane and Dale didn’t outperform the rest. However, these scores will get much closer as the weeks go on. This is something that happens every season. It is far easier to vastly outperform someone in one game than to outperform them at that same level over an entire season. It isn’t likely that Keohane throws for 8 TDs every week. You can also expect the lowest scores to rise for the same reason.

The other interesting thing this week is a few emergency QBs making the list. North Carolina’s Rocco Rambo and Colorado’s Barrett Steele both had to start in place of suspended QBs. They both performed pretty well considering the situation. I have decided to include them next week, just to compare them with the starters that they replaced. After that week they will have to be removed so they do not skew the stats as we play more games.

We will see if Keohane can hold on to first place next week. But for now, he is the guy to beat. Congrats to him and good luck to all the QBs in the CFSL.