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JTR QB Rankings: Season 19, Week 2

Ryan Moreland · January 19, 2024

noir-royal

By: Ryan Moreland (@ryanmoreland)

Another week in the books and we have plenty of shake-up on the leaderboard. Let’s find out who fell and who rose.

How JTR Works

JTR ranks players by comparison to the league average using unbiased stats. By unbiased stats, we mean stats that don’t show a preference for one style of play over another. For example, we expect a quarterback in an air raid system to throw the ball more often than a quarterback in a multiple set. So comparing the two based on completions wouldn’t be fair. Once we determine stats that we believe to be unbiased, we create a league average. Outperforming the league average earns a player positive points. Stats that fall below the league average will earn a player negative points. Points for each stat are calculated and combined with a base rating given to each player. The combination results in a player’s JTR metric score. 0 is the worst possible score and 100 is the best possible score.

For QBs, the stats we chose to use are completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdown percentage, interception percentage, passing yards per game, and unique rushing index. The rushing index excludes sacks from a quarterback’s rush totals to get a more accurate sense of them as a runner. Also, QBs cannot take negative points from the rushing index (outside of fumbles). This is because a running ability for a quarterback is a plus, but not a requirement.

JTR is not a predictive metric. It cannot tell the future. It can only measure what a player has done up to that point.

JTR Leaderboard

Rank (Last Week)PlayerTeamJTR Score (Change)
1 (5)Noir RoyalIllinois93.102 (+18.058)
2 (2)Beau DaleFlorida91.495 (-2.944)
3 (1)Sean KeohanePenn State90.021 (-9.85)
4 (12)Sam DobbinsMiami87.827 (+24.802)
5 (3)Charlie SammonsLSU86.045 (+9.002)
6 (7)Zeus ClaydonFlorida State84.046 (+15.234)
7 (8)Baker ThomasAuburn79.610 (+13.207)
8 (11)Avery WareAlabama77.042 (+14.017)
9 (13)Gunner RiceWest Virginia75.007 (+12.704)
10 (17)Mateo WalkerKentucky74.387 (+17.436)
11 (10)Greg CookseyMichigan73.753 (+8.636)
12 (N/A)Kevin PriceNorth Carolina72.725 (N/A)
13 (24)Jay DukeTexas72.190 (+26.538)
14 (14)McKade AlberBoise State70.654 (+8.902)
15 (23)Brantley GauciOhio State68.280 (+18.940)
16 (15)Barrett SteeleColorado68.136 (+8.143)
17 (4)Windham CarterBaylor67.911 (-7.388)
18 (26)Claude DuBoisOregon66.278 (+27.740)
19 (16) Kolten PowellUSC62.021 (+3.965)
20 (27)Brandon PettyGeorgia61.329 (+27.409)
21 (27)Owen DartWashington60.768 (+6.418)
22 (22)Rocco RamboNorth Carolina60.420 (+9.200)
23 (6)JK MatthewsSyracuse59.675 (-10.259
24 (20)Ludwig FriedmanCincinnati58.040 (+4.853)
25 (9)Andrei BelovPittsburgh57.939 (-7.541)
26 (21)Kyson CareyTennessee50.267 (-2.068)
27 (18)Terry OlliffOklahoma State50.057 (-5.274)
28 (25)Del ToroNotre Dame49.632 (+6.422)
29 (28)Luke CannonClemson49.085 (+22.033)
30 (N/A)Sky SandersColorado47.240 (N/A)

Findings

Before we jump into who had the best weeks, a quick note: Every season we have started Week One with a slightly lower base score. This prevents players from going over 100 in the ratings. Starting in Week Two the base score is put back to where it was designed to be. That means that the list did get a bit of an artificial bump. It was lowered by 10 points last week. That means, that this week an increase of 10 points to your score means you have not truly changed from last week. Week One is the only time the base score changes.

We have a new name at the top of the leaderboard this week. Illinois QB Noir Royal had another great week, this time against Cincinnati. This is the first #1 ranking in the JTR in his career. Congrats to Royal.

Despite taking over the top spot, Royal wasn’t our QB with the largest increase in score. That honor goes to Oregon QB Claude DuBois. Week One may not have been his friend, but Week Two was in Dubois’s corner. He had a huge game against Baylor to end the Ducks losing streak. Other big improvers were Georgia’s Brandon Petty, Texas’s Jay Duke, and Miami’s Sam Dobbins.

As I said last week, the emergency QBs were left in this week just for comparison (and there might be a QB controversy in Colorado). They will be removed going forward so that they don’t unfairly change everyone else’s score. Congrats to our big movers and the new leader. Good luck to all the QBs in Week Three.

dee-frost

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