Wareforce Power Index: Season 21, Week 3

By: David Ware (@davidware)

Editor’s Note: These rankings were created before the games last night. We had some difficulty getting this out yesterday. Apologies for the delay.

Allow me to Introduce Chaos

Rumor is that numbers don’t lie. Well, there are two things that I really love and one is almost guaranteed to happen with this new unofficial ranking system! As guaranteed as paying taxes is, every week when the rankings are dropped, someone always has a different opinion of who should be ranked where and the chaos begins! I must say that I have felt on the wrong end of some rankings as well.

The thing is that there will never be a perfect ranking or poll and there will always be someone or some team who feels slighted. One thing about a human poll is that emotions can help dictate ranking, and that can cause controversy. With a computer ranking, it’s all stat-based and some people will not want to agree with it because of their emotion tied to their opinion and at the end of the day, a human element can help break ties.

How the Ranking is Calculated

Everyone knows by now that I love statistics and probably have an unhealthy obsession with spreadsheets. I have created what is similar to the old BCS ranking system but have included some elements that I think are vital in determining who the top teams are. 

Each team will be awarded a power index rating based on the following data points: winning percentage, the strength of schedule, net points, opponents’ strength of schedule, and finally opponents’ net points.  Three of the categories are self-explanatory as winning percentage, strength of schedule and net points are easy to calculate, but to be fair to the ranking I feel it is important to look at the opponent’s strength of schedule when putting it all together. If a team plays someone who is (1-2) but the teams they have played are a combined (7-2) well that should have some weight compared to a team that has played someone who is (2-1) and their opponents are (2-7).

The Formula

Winning percentage is the largest factor and accounts for 30% of the ranking as wins are most important. Strength of schedule and opponents strength of schedule each count for an additional 25% of the ranking. Everyone loves style points so point differential counts for 20% of the formula.  Each team is then awarded a bonus, which can be positive or negative based on their opponents’ point differential. 

Each team’s opponents net points are averaged and then a bonus of 2% of that average is awarded to that team. If a school has opponents that are getting beat by large amounts each week that school will have a negative bonus, but if their opponents are keeping the games close and has a positive net, they will receive a positive bonus. This week there were nine teams with a positive bonus, one team had zero bonus, and the rest had a negative bonus. This helps to allow the quality of the opponents to have a real impact on the rankings.

Some Things to Keep in Mind

Just like the BCS ranking, the Wareforce Power Index Ranking will not be released after week one. The BCS waited till after week 7 to release because it is vital to have more data to properly score teams. Therefore, the Wareforce Power Index will not be released each season until Week 4 and will continue through the regular season. There is no data accounted for from the previous season because the data only wants to compare how the teams are performing this season and against what talent of competition they are playing. The great thing about this database is, that if a team keeps winning, then they will keep climbing each week in the rankings as others start to lose, but wins are not the only factor with it.

One last side note for the strength of schedule, it only counts the games that have been played to date. 

Let’s not wait any longer and let’s dive into the top 10 this week in the Wareforce Power Index.

10. Alabama

Record: 2-1

Wareforce Performance Index Score: 0.437

Alabama is coming off of their first loss of the season against Texas. Before that game Alabama had a +27-point differential but the 69-38 score hurt them and dropped them down the rankings.  

Overall Alabama has a B on the Season.

9. Kentucky

Record: 2-1

Wareforce Performance Index Score: 0.448

Kentucky is coming off a very close game against West Virginia and currently has the 21st-worst overall strength of schedule in the league. Their opponent’s strength of schedule is much better and ranked 12th in the league.  

Overall Kentucky has a B on the season.

8. Texas A&M

Wareforce Performance Index Score: 0.458

A tough loss this week for the Aggies at the hands of the Florida Gators.  It was their first loss of the season, but don’t forget about their very impressive Week One win against Michigan State. On the season the Aggies are 10th in the league for net points.

Overall Texas A&M has a B on the season.

7. Oklahoma 

Record: 3-0

Wareforce Performance Index Score: 0.472

The Sooners have continued to prove everyone wrong all season and their performance has impressed the Wareforce Power Index. The huge win last week against Georgia helped push their net points to sixth best in the league and other than strength of schedule, they rank first in all tracked categories for the Big 12. Their opponents’ strength of schedule is number one in the CFSL.

Overall Oklahoma has a B on the season.

6. Florida

Record: 2-1

Wareforce Performance Index Score: 0.496

The Gators are coming off a fantastic win against Texas A&M, who came into the week undefeated.  Overall Florida has played well all season and currently ranks in the top 10 in strength of schedule, winning percentage, and net points, and has given up the fifth least points in the CFSL. With the win against the Aggies, the Gators jumped up eight spots over their ranking last week.  That is the biggest jump this week compared to last week.

Overall Florida has a B on the season.  

5. Texas

Record: 2-1

Wareforce Performance Index Score: 0.526

The Longhorns are feeling great after their dominant win against Alabama this week and have moved up the second-most spots. They are up five over last week and on a roll going into conference play. We will have to see how well their offense can perform with new quarterback Bo Jones under center though. Texas is ranked second in all categories in the Big 12 except the strength of schedule and they are third in that. This week against LSU will be a real test for Texas.

Overall Texas has an A on the season

4. North Carolina

Record: 2-1

Wareforce Performance Index Score: 0.555

The Tar Heels started the season with a huge win against Texas and lost a rough game to Auburn, but they rebounded well this week against Oregon. North Carolina is ranked in the top 10 in all stats that are used for the Wareforce Power Index throughout the whole CFSL. In the ACC conference, they are number one in winning percentage, and net points, and have the best offense. With some shuffling from some other schools, North Carolina moved up four spots.

Overall North Carolina has an A on the season.

3. USC

Record: 3-0

Wareforce Performance Index Score: 0.564

This one is sure to cause chaos and conversation as so many people assume the defending champions should remain number one until they lose a game, but the numbers just don’t agree. To be fair, I have tried adjusting the formula in a ton of different ways to see if I could find a way for USC is the top school this year, and not one combination of the formula accomplishes that. USC has the best offense in the league and a top-10 defense and has done a great job outscoring their opponents, but there’s a big but coming, their strength of schedule is 23rd out of 24 teams. 

The only game against a top talent team was a three-point win in overtime and it was a great win, but it’s not enough to push them higher in the computer rankings. Now for those who are hurt by this, I have some advice for you. “Patience young grasshopper”, remember that strength of schedule is based on only the games you have played, so as USC gets deep in their Big10 conference schedule they should start to climb, IF they continue to win. USC could be better than last year and destroy everyone in sight, but only time will tell and this ranking doesn’t apply emotion or anything from last year so that’s why they are currently sitting at number three on the very young season.  

Overall USC has an A on the season.

2. Ohio State

Record: 3-0

Wareforce Performance Index Score: 0.600

Talking about adjustments, Ohio State started the season, or at least the first half of game one, looking like they were going to be on the struggle bus this year. Some quick halftime adjustments have the Buckeyes firing on all cylinders and not looking like they will be losing any power soon. Colorado had them by two touchdowns at the half in their Week one matchup and never looked back from there. Week two was a pure domination of Georgia and Week three was a pretty easy win against Virginia Tech. While their strength of schedule is ranked 18th in the CFSL, we will see this week how good they are. The powerful Michigan State Spartans will be traveling to Columbus Ohio for what could be a conference-defining game. 

Could this game be the tiebreaker that decides an automatic playoff spot or maybe even the number one seed in the conference? Why so high for the Buckeyes though, well it’s simple, they have the best point differential, the best defense, the second-best opponents’ strength of schedule, and sixth best offense in the league. As long as they keep winning, they will be flirting with the number one spot!

Overall Ohio State has an A on the Season

1 . Auburn

Record: 3-0

Wareforce Performance Index Score: 0.616

The Auburn Tigers are a great example of why the Wareforce Power Index uses the opponent’s strength of schedule. Their strength of schedule is ranked 22nd in the CFSL as they have played Michigan, North Carolina, and LSU and all three of these teams were ranked in the top 11 of the initial official weekly poll that was put out there at the beginning of Week One. 

Michigan has run into a buzzsaw schedule and has been in three very close games but has not secured its first victory. North Carolina was handled pretty easily against Auburn and LSU was nearly mercied by the Tigers. Auburn has the third-best offense and sixth-best defense in the league as well as the fourth-best point differential. Their opponent’s strength of schedule is good for seventh in the CFSL this year so far.  Auburn has been on a run; they are not slowing down any right now. 

This week, they have what should be a very manageable win as they play the Georgia Bulldogs.  Congratulations to the Auburn Tigers for claiming the top spot in the Wareforce Power Index this week!

Overall, Auburn has an A+ on the Season

What an exciting week of CFSL action and make sure you tune in this week to watch the beginning of the conference battles. One thing to watch out for this week is that more chaos could easily happen. If Auburn, Ohio State, and USC all win and by the same amount, Ohio State could take over as the top team in the land because of the strength of its schedule. Three of the top five biggest movers this week were in the top 10 but I would like to recognize Colorado and Florida State for rounding out the top 5 biggest movers this week. Tune in next week to find out who the top 10 schools are in the Wareforce Power Index.