By: Ryan Moreland (@ryanmoreland)
There are only two weeks until the regular season is over and the playoffs get set to begin. That means it is time to focus in on these playoff and conference title races. We start in the ACC, which is going to have an interesting race for both the top 3 and the top 1.
Before we jump into it, let’s take a quick refresher on the tiebreakers and how to get into the playoffs. Here are the tiebreakers in order:
| Order | Tiebreaker |
| 1 | Conference Record |
| 2 | Head-to-Head |
| 3 | Record vs common conference opponents |
| 4 | Point differential vs common conference opponents |
| 5 | Record vs common overall opponents |
| 6 | Point differential vs common overall opponents |
| 7 | Overall record |
| 8 | Overall point differential |
Since every conference team will eventually play each other, most ties will end at head-to-head. However, there can be scenarios that take us much deeper (just look at the ACC last season).
Now, for how the playoffs work. The top three teams in each conference will get an automatic bid into the playoffs. After that has been settled, then the last 4 teams will be voted in by a league-wide vote. After the field is set, seeding will begin. This season, the top 8 teams will be seeded and then they will get to draft their opening-round opponents (which I cannot wait to write content about).
I cannot predict which way the vote will go, so for these articles, I will be focusing on the automatic bids.
Current Standings
| Team | Overall Record | Conference Record |
| Florida State | 5-1 | 3-0 |
| Miami | 5-1 | 3-0 |
| North Carolina | 3-3 | 1-2 |
| Clemson | 1-5 | 1-2 |
| Virginia Tech | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Notre Dame | 0-6 | 0-3 |
This is the current standings, as they would be with the tiebreakers in place. Florida State is currently over Miami because they have a better point differential against common conference opponents. The same goes for North Carolina over Clemson and Clemson over Virginia Tech. (Remember, overall record doesn’t matter here; Only conference record does). However, all of these tiebreakers won’t matter, as these teams will all play each other soon and those point differentials are bound to change.
Conference Title Race
This one is pretty straightforward. Everyone is mathematically eliminated from securing a conference title except for Florida State and Miami. These two will play in Week 8. No matter what happens before then, that game will be the de facto ACC Conference Championship Game. Whoever wins will be the conference champs.
Playoff Race
Things get more interesting here. Let’s start with the simple. Miami has already punched their ticket. The worst spot the Hurricanes could finish is second in the conference. While North Carolina, Clemson, and Virginia Tech all could tie Miami, Miami holds head-to-head tiebreakers over all three teams.
Florida State has also punched their ticket. However, Florida State could still finish third in the conference. If they lose both upcoming games to Virginia Tech and Miami AND Virginia Tech beats Clemson in Week 8, then Virginia Tech would tie Florida State at second place. In that scenario the Hokies would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Seminoles, pushing them to third place. However, if Florida State wins this coming week they guarantee themselves a top-2 spot.
Out of the three teams tied at 1-2, North Carolina sits in the best spot. They already have a head-to-head win over Virginia Tech. This week they play Clemson. If North Carolina wins and Virginia Tech loses this week, then North Carolina punches their ticket and will hold the last automatic bid. A loss to Clemson doesn’t end North Carolina’s chances at an automatic bid, but they would need the season to end in a three-way tie with Clemson and Virginia Tech to get in.
Clemson needs to beat North Carolina this week for their hopes at an automatic bid to stay alive. A loss would have them hoping for a vote-in spot. If they do win over UNC and Virginia Tech, then they punch their ticket. A win over UNC and a loss to Virginia Tech would mean one of two things. First, if UNC loses to Notre Dame in the final week, then Virginia Tech gets the last spot. Secondly, If UNC beats Notre Dame, then we have a wild three-way tie that would have to be settled by point differential against common conference opponents.
Virginia Tech has two paths to the top three. The first is they win both remaining games and North Carolina loses at least one of theirs. (The Hokies need to be BIG Clemson fans this coming week). The other path is the one discussed above, which throws all three teams into a three-way tie. They currently have the worst point differential against common conference opponents, which means they need to win by a lot for this to happen. If Virginia Tech loses to Florida State and North Carolina beats Clemson, then Virginia Tech is eliminated from the automatic bid contention.
Notre Dame has been eliminated from automatic bid contention. While they still could tie North Carolina, Clemson, and Virginia Tech, there is no scenario where they could win the tiebreaker thanks to the head-to-head losses they have already.
Will the ACC continue to be the conference with the craziest playoff races? We will find out this week. Good luck to the six teams that represent the ACC.
