SEC Playoff Picture: Season 21, Week 7

Ryan Moreland · October 18, 2024

lance-lyde

By: Ryan Moreland (@ryanmoreland)

A lot has been decided in the SEC already, but there is still one highly coveted spot left up for grabs.

Before we jump into it, let’s take a quick refresher on the tiebreakers and how to get into the playoffs. Here are the tiebreakers in order:

OrderTiebreaker
1Conference Record
2Head-to-Head
3Record vs common conference opponents
4Point differential vs common conference opponents
5Record vs common overall opponents
6Point differential vs common overall opponents
7Overall record
8Overall point differential

Since every conference team will eventually play each other, most ties will end at head-to-head. However, there can be scenarios that take us much deeper (just look at the ACC last season).

Now, for how the playoffs work. The top three teams in each conference will get an automatic bid into the playoffs. After that has been settled, then the last 4 teams will be voted in by a league-wide vote. After the field is set, seeding will begin. This season, the top 8 teams will be seeded and then they will get to draft their opening-round opponents (which I cannot wait to write content about).

I cannot predict which way the vote will go, so for these articles, I will be focusing on the automatic bids.

Current Standings

TeamOverall RecordConference Record
Auburn7-04-0
Kentucky5-23-1
Florida4-32-2
Alabama4-32-2
Georgia2-51-3
Tennessee1-60-4

The only tie is between Florida and Alabama. Florida just beat Alabama head-to-head, which gives them the tiebreaker.

Conference Title Race

The conference title race is over in the SEC. Auburn, for the second straight season, is the SEC Champions. This is the third conference title for Auburn in school history.

Playoff Race

Auburn locked up the conference title and the top spot already. The second spot is also spoken for. No matter what happens, Kentucky will be the second team in the SEC.

That leaves the last spot. Florida, Alabama, and Georgia all have a chance to claim the final spot (although, Georgia needs a lot to go right for them to claim it).

Florida is the only team in this race that controls their destiny. If they beat Georgia this week, then they punch their ticket.

Alabama needs Florida to lose AND they need to beat Auburn. If that were to happen, then the Crimson Tide would lock up the final spot.

Georgia needs to win AND Alabama to lose to force a three-way tie in which head-to-head couldn’t decide the tie. This tie would then come down to point differential against common conference opponents. Here is where the teams stand right now in conference point differential:

TeamPoint Differential in Conference
Alabama+16
Georgia+13
Florida-11

If Georgia beats Florida and Alabama loses (which makes this three-way tie possible) then they will most likely be the team that has the best point differential.

The vote-in spots get interesting in the SEC. If Georgia beats Florida, then they would have the same record as Florida, with the head-to-head win. So even if Alabama beats Auburn and takes the last automatic bid, one would have to imagine Georgia gets in before Florida does.

The same could be said for Tennessee if they beat Kentucky and Georgia loses to Florida. The SEC, in my opinion, has the best odds of any conference to have more than one vote-in team. However, the vote-in is hard to predict.

Good luck to all the teams in the SEC this week.

dee-frost

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