By: Ryan Moreland (@ryanmoreland)
There is a lot on the line in the final night of CFSL regular-season action, which has raised many questions about what can happen. So, I decided to write this article to update you on what has happened and what is left to happen tonight.
The SEC and ACC have been decided so we will start there.
ACC Playoffs
The top three are set. Florida State finished as the conference champions with Miami right behind them and North Carolina finishing in third.
However, keep an eye on YouTube tonight. There is a great ACC match-up between Virginia Tech and Clemson. With a win, the Hokies could find themselves firmly in the vote-in race.
SEC Playoffs
The SEC is also set, but I will go into slightly deeper detail to explain how and why since there has been some confusion. Auburn and Kentucky locked up the top two spots, so only the last playoff spot was up for grabs. This week Alabama lost to Auburn and Georgia upset Florida. This left us with a three-way tie for the final spot.
Let’s reintroduce the tiebreakers:
| Order | Tiebreaker |
| 1 | Conference Record |
| 2 | Head-to-Head |
| 3 | Record vs common conference opponents |
| 4 | Point differential vs common conference opponents |
| 5 | Record vs common overall opponents |
| 6 | Point differential vs common overall opponents |
| 7 | Overall record |
| 8 | Overall point differential |
Since Alabama beat Georgia, Georgia beat Florida, and Florida beat Alabama, we can’t settle this tie by head-to-head. Record vs common conference opponents is also useless since everyone plays every team in their conference and this number is the same as their conference record. So we fall to their point differentials vs common conference opponents. Here is what that looks like:
| Team | Point Differential in Conference |
| Georgia | +25 |
| Alabama | -15 |
| Florida | -23 |
This means that Georgia breaks the tie and finishes in third place and they get the automatic bid. However, since the tie is broken and now it is a two-way tie, we must start back at the top of our leaderboard list. This means that Florida finishes fourth in the conference since they have a head-to-head win over Alabama. That could be important in the vote-in, but both teams have strong vote-in resumes.
Now, let’s get to the races that haven’t been decided.
Big10 Playoffs
Ohio State has locked up the conference championship. However, the next three spots are up for grabs. USC won last night over Oregon, so they improved to 3-2 in conference play. Tonight Penn State plays Michigan State. If the Spartans win, then they take 2nd place, with USC in 3rd and there are no ties.
However, (and this is where things get interesting) if Penn State wins, this creates a 3-way tie for 2nd place. Just like the 3rd place race in the SEC, there would be a win-triangle, and head-to-head would be thrown out of the window (at least temporarily).
Here is what the points against common conference opponents look like right now:
| Team | Point Differential in Conference |
| USC | +25 |
| Michigan State | +25 |
| Penn State | -24 |
If Michigan State were to lose, they would need to lose by at least one point. This means that USC would win this tie and finish in 2nd place in the conference. Once again, we now have a two-way tie and must start back at the top of the tiebreaker list. Since Penn State beat Michigan State, Penn State would finish third and Michigan State would fall to 4th place.
There is also the possibility (even though it is unlikely) that Penn State mercies Michigan State tonight. That would improve Penn State’s in-conference point differential to +26 (or perhaps slightly higher) meaning they would finish 2nd in the conference. Since Michigan State beat USC head-to-head, The Trojans would fall out of the top three.
Big XII Playoffs
The Big XII is drunk and should go home. This was a wild race. This is the only conference that hasn’t decided who its Season 21 Champion is yet. Colorado, Texas, and Texas A&M will be the top 3 teams, but the order will be decided tonight.
If Texas A&M loses to LSU, then they finish 3rd and there is a two-way tie for first place between Texas and Colorado. Texas beat Colorado earlier this season, so they would be conference champions, with Colorado in 2nd place.
However, if Texas A&M wins, then we have a three-way tie for 1st place that would fall to an in-conference point differential. Here is where the teams stand right now:
| Team | Point Differential in Conference |
| Colorado | +80 |
| Texas | +60 |
| Texas A&M | +2 |
This would make Colorado your Season 21 Big XII Champs. Since Texas A&M beat Texas earlier this season, they would win the tiebreaker and finish 2nd, with Texas falling to 3rd.
I hope this clears up some of the confusion (and if you still have questions feel free to DM me or tag me in League Chat). There is a lot on the line tonight within the Big10 and Big XII. These can’t-miss games are just a few hours away.
