By: Nate Murphy (@bigmurph23)
As we kick off Week 3 in the CFSL, let’s stop and look at where we sit and what could happen in the future. Currently, half of the league teams sit at 2-0 or 0-2. There are six unbeatens (Alabama, UNC, Oklahoma, Oregon, Miami, and Ohio State). There are also six winless teams (Kentucky, Texas A&M, Penn State, Georgia, and Clemson). So what does this mean right now? In a word…nothing.
Yes, non-conference is important. If you don’t earn one of the automatic playoff spots, performing well during your conference schedule could be the difference in making or missing the vote in spots for the playoffs. But if you believe in your team and what you are doing and you use your non-con games to improve your game plan then you are still set up to go out and earn one of those automatic spots. And let’s also not forget that not every non-conference schedule is created equal.
So let’s look at some of those twelve teams that sit at the top and bottom of the standings…for now. Are there any 2-0 teams that won’t make the playoffs when it is all said and done? I think maybe there is. And are there any 0-2 teams that will make the playoffs? I’m not as sure about that but I am going to force myself to find at least one. But that task becomes a lot harder when you know that teams like Auburn, USC, Texas, and FSU are all at 1-1 and always seem to be in a position for one of those automatic bids.
We’ll start at the top of the league. The Oregon Ducks are one of the six teams who have gotten through the first two weeks unblemished. But how good are they? Remember when I said that not all non-conference schedules are created equal? If not please refer back to paragraph two. Well, the Ducks are beneficiaries of an “easier” schedule. Week one they hosted WVU who was 0-8 the previous season and then they hosted Tennessee who was 1-7 in season 21. Yes, Oregon had gone 0-8 last season as well to earn those games. But does this tell us exactly how much Oregon has improved? They have looked good with a freshman quarterback early. Alexa Earl has completed nearly 71% of her throws for 6 TDs and only 2 early INTs. They take on Notre Dame in week three and I believe they will be 3-0 heading into conference play. With that said…Oregon, in my opinion, is the team from this group that is most likely to get left out of the playoffs. Only because of the highly competitive nature of the Big 10 Conference. Even if they only win one conference game they could potentially be 4-4. But is that enough to get them into the playoffs? We will have to wait and see.
How about a team at the bottom end of the league standings right now? In this group, I have my eyes on three teams with the potential to break through. Kentucky, Texas A&M, and Penn State. The problem, no conference has guaranteed wins that will get you enough wins to get in.
So who has the best chance? The Wildcats have played tough, maybe over their heads, in weeks one and two, losing by a combined 6 points. The ‘Cats have scored the most points (tied for first with Miami) through two weeks racking up 113 points. So we know the offense can do the job. But can the defense turn it around and slow down powerful SEC offenses?
Texas A&M has had a brutal non-conference schedule through two weeks, and it gets no easier with Auburn looming in week three. But they are built to compete in the Big 12. If they slip to 0-3 are there enough wins in conference play to get them in?
And Penn State. They came up short against Florida and didn’t play well against a great UNC team. But Penn State has the roster and a seasoned AD in TJ Smith to pull this off. Their final non-conference game on the road at Texas could be big because as we have said before the Big 10 is going to be wide open and hard to win. So who is it from this group that could find their way in from a 0-2 start? I’m going out on a little bit of a limb. I’m going with the brand-new AD Eugene and the Kentucky Wildcats. They have 2-0 Ohio State in their final non-conference game. If they can figure out who to win some of these close games, who knows what they could do? An offense that looks like they can keep the ‘Cats in any game is what I’m hanging my hat on for this pick.
Okay, what do you think? How far off am I? Go on, let me know in league chat…respectfully. Remember, this is simply my opinion and something to get a little thinking and conversation going. This is not disrespect directed at anyone or any team. It is simply an observation. If you think I’m wrong about your team, you can tell me…but go out and prove it instead
