By: David Ware (@davidware)
It is Time to Play the Game
My to-do list for the day is written and right at the top of the list it says to introduce chaos into the league, so who am I to disappoint? Three weeks into the book and after next week, we will be halfway through Season 22. Let that bit of mind-blowing information set into your mind for a moment and simmer on it while we prepare to release the first official, well unofficial Wareforce Power Index Ratings. The last few weeks we have talked about some key games that could have jeopardized the rankings for some teams and now we shall see if the foreshadowing was correct.
The Wareforce Power Index is NOT the official CFSL ranking, it is a computer-based ranking system much like the BCS system that NCAA used for a long time.
The Wareforce Power Index is a custom spreadsheet built by yours truly and it incorporates each team’s winning percentage, strength of schedule, point differential, offensive efficiency, defense efficiency, opponent strength of schedule, and finally opponent point differential.
Now that you can see the formula, understand that there is zero human emotion, eye test, or results from the previous season that are accounted for in these rankings. It is nothing but statistics that calculate the rankings and if I am being honest, there have been some times that I have had to double-check the data input to make sure it was calculated properly. Well, there is only one way to find out who is ranked where and that will be by kicking it off now, so without further delay I give you the #10 ranked team.
10. USC Trojans (2-1) Grade: C
The back-to-back defending champions have had a schedule filled with fellow conference winners and it was several heavy-weight fights for them in the first three weeks. In their two wins, they have a combined (+8) net differential, and they lost by a last-minute touchdown to the Auburn Tigers. I would guess that the Trojans are probably happy to enter conference play, well maybe, it is the Big10 and it will be another batch of blood baths for the defending champs to have to fight off. For those that are new, this is not unchartered territory for the Trojans as last year they were in the mid to lower rankings for a good bit of the season, but that did not stop them from winning a second national championship.
9. Oregon (2-1) Grade: B
I can’t help but wonder how much higher they would be if they could of beaten Notre Dame as many expected. The loss leaves a lot of questions now for Oregon as they prepare for some conference battles, but they have shown they can score a lot of points as well as their defense is capable of limiting points. Week four will have major implications for Oregon as a win can boost them and a loss will certainly drop them out of the top 10.
8. Auburn (2-1) Grade: B
I had to double-check my bingo cards because Auburn with a regular season loss is not something I had prepared for after the last two perfect regular seasons. Auburn has recouped after a very tough week one loss with two major wins against USC and Texas A&M. I know the Aggies do not have a win yet, but their schedule was one of the hardest in the CFSL, and Auburn escaped with the five-point win says a lot about their resilience. Conference play starting next week will give us a good look at who Auburn is as they will be battle-tested by Florida.
7. Virginia Tech (2-1) Grade: B
The Hokies almost upset Oklahoma in Week One and then pulled off what many considered an upset against Michigan State in week two. In Week Three, they dominated against Florida, and they look to be in store for a strong season with conference play opening up. The Hokies would love to lock in one of the automatic playoff spots and the cards are set up so that they may just pull it off.
6. Oklahoma (2-1) Grade: B
The Sooners look to be one of the top teams this season in the CFSL, but this week’s loss leaves us with a few questions. The Michigan State Spartans pulled off a 21-point win in week three, and one can’t help but to wonder if it was a case of Oklahoma just having an off game or maybe some weaknesses exposed by the Spartans. This week Oklahoma will be able to answer some of these questions as they face conference rival Texas in what many believe will be the conference title-winning difference-making game. Will the Sooners right the ship or fall to 0.500 and give us even more questions?
5. Michigan State (2-1) Grade: B
A very strong start to the season for the Spartans as their lone loss was by a mere 1-point to Virginia Tech in Week 2. They dominated against Oklahoma in week three and look to be firing on all cylinders as they enter conference play. They will be tested immediately as they face off against the back-to-back defending champions USC Trojans in week four. A win next week and the Spartans will have a solid claim as one of the top teams in the CFSL.
4. Florida State (2-1) Grade: A
The Seminoles have been an exciting team to watch this season as all three of their games have been a one-score game and come down to the final play of the game. They started on a high with a win against Auburn, who had not lost a regular-season game in two seasons, and then lost a nail-biter with 0:03 seconds left against Ohio State in an instant classic. They held on against a very explosive Colorado offense to move to (2-1). They open up against Clemson in conference play and while on paper it is their game to win, I am predicting a trap game that Clemson can win if Florida State overlooks them. I wouldn’t expect Tom to overlook them at all, but this game will not be cut and dry like some imagine it will be.
3. Ohio State (3-0) Grade: A
This is where the fun begins as we have three unbeaten teams left in the league. Separating them by the slightest of stats and only stats will decide who the top team is this year so far in the CFSL. The margin of difference between the #3 ranked Ohio State and the top team is a small 0.025-point differential. The reason that Ohio State is third among the final teams is their strength of schedule ranking 20th in the CFSL. They rank fourth in net points, eighth in offensive points per game, and sixth in defensive points allowed per game. They also have the strongest opponent’s strength of schedule which is very impressive. In week one they had a two-score win against Colorado and then it was back-to-back one-score nail-biters that were entertaining. Ohio State sure knows how to put on a show and Zach Davis has them firing on all cylinders right now as they enter conference play. The Big10 will be tough, but they can run the table during the regular season. If you want to watch a competitive game, just turn on an Ohio State game.
2. North Carolina (3-0) Grade: A
The Tar Heels have been phenomenal this year and they have three pretty convincing wins so far. The margin of difference is simply 0.014 between the Tar Heels and the top spot and their strength of schedule is where the difference is. They have the 23rd-ranked strength of schedule at a 0.222 winning percentage compared to 0.333 of the top team. North Carolina does have the top point differential in the CFSL, points per game, and points allowed per game so far. They open up against Miami in ACC Conference play, with an opportunity to make a huge statement and possibly take the top spot! North Carolina is the early favorite to win the ACC this year and will be fun to watch for sure.
1. Alabama (3-0) Grade: A
Alabama has had its best start under athletic director David Ware and the first (3-0) start since season 15. Week one was a nail-biter against Michigan and Alabama rebounded with back-to-back Tiger beatdowns. They have the second largest point differential, third most points per game, and least number of points per game allowed. Their strength of schedule is only ranked 20th in the CFSL, but their opponent’s strength of schedule is the seventh toughest in the league. Alabama opens conference play against rival Tennessee, who they are (6-0) against all time. Can they continue their dominance through the regular season or will the SEC conference play trip them up? The Crimson Tide has a shot at winning the conference for the first time since season 18 and should be one of the automatic playoff bids out of the SEC.
Initial Warefoce Power Index Ratings Recap
With only three weeks of data, there will be plenty of conversations about who is ranked where and for that matter, who is not ranked. The more data that we have the more the top teams will separate themselves among the rest. With this ranking system, simply winning does not keep you ranked in the same spot. For example, in week four a North Carolina win against Miami will probably bump them to the top spot even with an Alabama win over Tennessee. One thing is for sure with this system, you will find yourself rooting for your opponents to win all of their games, as that will help your team’s strength of schedule. Let the chaos of conference play begin next week and we will see if we have any more upsets.
Until Next Time, Keep Your Game Face On and Your Spirits High!
