By: David Ware (@davidware)
A Week full of Excitement and Chaos
Conference play opened up with lots of fun, several close games, and even a few upsets. Not only did this week close games, but it also included the 2,000th CFSL game. I don’t know about you, but that Texas and Oklahoma game lived up to the full hype that you would expect for the 2,000th game.
I would venture to say there were three real upsets this week as we saw Miami take down North Carolina, Florida take down Auburn, and Georgia take down Kentucky. Clemson almost took down Florida State and Michigan State pushed USC to the brink but fell just short. With all this chaos, we have two new teams in the top 10.
Please remember this is the UNOFFICIAL rankings as it is purely stat-based. This week we have a large gap between number one and number two, unlike last week where we only had a 0.016-point differential. So, what are we waiting for, let’s see who the top-rated teams are in this week’s Wareforce Power Index!
10. Michigan (2-2) Grade: B
Michigan was so close to a week one win against Alabama and played well other than the loss to Clemson in week three. Even at a record of (2-2), they are top 10 in all categories except for points allowed. Michigan and USC will tell us a lot about Michigan and should provide some great entertainment this week for the CFSL.
9. Texas (2-1) Grade:
Texas climbs into the top 10 after a huge win against Oklahoma last week. They are primed to make a run for the conference title and should be favored against West Virginia and this season may be a duplicate of last year when they lost week one but went on a huge run. Texas does have the best opponents’ strength of schedule in the CFSL. One interesting note about Texas is they are only (+5) with a point differential even though they are (3-1).
8. Oklahoma (2-2) Grade: B
Every season is full of highs and lows and right now Oklahoma is experiencing two straight losses. This week does not get any easier for them either as they have to play the rival Texas A&M Aggies. Expectations would be that if they can win against the Aggies, they will remain in the top 10 but I could see a loss knocking them out. To be fair though, the Sooners do have the third-highest strength of schedule so far and it’s not getting any easier the rest of the way!
7. Florida State (3-1) Grade:
Florida State had a very close win against Clemson this past week and due to Clemson’s strength of schedule, FSU dropped a few spots in the Wareforce Power Index. Do not let this drop in ranking fool you though, as Florida State is still one of the top teams in the CFSL this year and as the rest of the schedule plays out will continue to climb in the rankings as long as they win. Keep in mind the strength of the schedule is only on the teams played to date; it doesn’t include future games. When adding UNC, Miami, and VT to their strength of schedule, they will have one of the hardest schedules in the league. Right now, they are eighth with strength of schedule.
6. USC (3-1) Grade:
The defending champions had a huge win in week four to move to (3-1) and they are looking to move to the top of the Wareforce Power Index, much like they did last season. They will have their hands full this week with rival Michigan and would benefit from a win this week. Their defense has been fantastic, but their offense has only scored 30+ points one time so far. Can the offense start lighting some more fireworks or will they ride their defense to the playoffs?
5. Virginia Tech (3-1) Grade:
Virginia Tech is coming off one of the largest margins of victory of the season in the CFSL as they defeated Notre Dame 62-28 for their third straight win. This week will be another huge test for the Hokies as they have to face off against Florida State. If the Hokies want a shot at an automatic playoff bid, this game will be very instrumental for that. They will still have to face Miami and North Carolina this season.
4. Ohio State (4-0) Grade:
Ohio State much like Florida State dropped even though they won. Penn State has had a very tough season with so many close calls but their (0-4) record brought down Ohio State and their strength of schedule. The Buckeyes are one of only two teams left that is undefeated and this week they will have the opportunity to climb in the rankings. Michigan State comes in at (2-2) and has an opportunity to turn the Big10 upside down by beating the Buckeyes. If the cards fall just right, Ohio State could repeat with a second straight (8-0) and one of the top seeds in the playoffs. Zach Davis deserves a ton of credit for his efforts at Ohio State the last two seasons.
3. Miami (3-1) Grade:
The next two teams will cause some chaos as well as Ohio State being at #4 and being undefeated. Typically, a tiebreaker is head-to-head, and Miami did defeat North Carolina but when looking at these two teams the Tar Heels have the advantage with strength of schedule, point differential, and points allowed. The margin between Miami and North Carolina is a very small 0.005 and both teams will be heavily favored this week. If Miami would like to pass North Carolina, then they will need some style points against Clemson. I will say though, that Clemson could be a trap game for the Hurricanes if they overlook the Tigers at all. I would expect this game to be no more than 9.5 points for a margin of victory.
2. North Carolina (3-1) Grade:
North Carolina suffered their first loss of the season last week to Miami and the score is closer than what the game seemed to be. Miami controlled much of the game, but it doesn’t take anything away from what the Tar Heels have done this season and/or are still capable of doing this season. North Carolina gets to take their aggression out this week against Notre Dame and it’s a game that on paper could have a large margin of victory. North Carolina would love to go back to their dominating ways and extend their point differential on the season. Tar Heels still should be able to lock in an automatic playoff spot, but they will have to lock in.
1. Alabama (4-0) Grade:
Last Week Alabama held a slight advantage over North Carolina and Ohio State, but his week there is a large gap and the reason is simple. Alabama is number one in all the categories except opponents’ strength of schedule, which they are third, and strength of schedule, which they are 14th. They have the best offense, defense, and point differential in the league. Their defense will be put to the test this week as they face a very high-scoring Kentucky Wildcat offense. It could be a very high-scoring game no doubt, and Alabama has to play their best football if they want to remain undefeated this week. Will the Tide continue to roll, or will the Kentucky deliver the upset of the week?
Wareforce Power Index Week 4 Recap
With two new teams this week making an appearance and two teams dropping out, we see that anything can happen. Each week we have seen that every game can make a difference and that no team is safe can take another team for granted. This season will be fun for sure as the parity in the CFSL is the best it has ever been. Tune in on Monday to see the Inside Blitz and compare these unofficial rankings to the league’s official rankings. I don’t believe there will be much of a difference, but we must tune in to find out.
Until Next Time, Keep your game face on and Your Spirits High!
