By: Ryan Moreland (@ryanmoreland)
Playoff season is just around the corner and the races in the conferences are heating up. While we will be keeping an eye on those (just wait until Friday for more on that), this article isn’t going to cover tiebreakers and postseason rules. Instead, this article is going to focus on the numbers behind making the postseason.
The CFSL moved to the current playoff format in Season 19, so I broke down the last three seasons and these are some of the things I have found.
Lucky Number Four
Do you want to make the playoffs? The recipe is simple: win four games. No team in this playoff format has ever finished the regular season 4-4 and missed the postseason. So, congrats to Virginia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, USC, Ohio State, Texas, and Alabama, who all have 4 or more wins this season.
Alternatively, no team has snuck in with a 2-6 or worse record in the same timeframe.
3-5 seasons get a little trickier. In the last three seasons, 15 teams have finished the regular season at 3-5. Six of the three-win teams made the postseason. This means that a 3-5 season gives you a 40% chance of making the postseason. However, that number may be higher now.
| Record | Odds to Make the Playoffs (Since Season 19) |
| 8-0 | 100% |
| 7-1 | 100% |
| 6-2 | 100% |
| 5-3 | 100% |
| 4-4 | 100% |
| 3-5 | 40% |
| 2-6 | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% |
In Season 19 the league had 28 teams. Eight teams finished 3-5 that season and only two of those made the postseason. In Season 20 the league had 26 teams. Six teams finished 3-5 and three of them played in the playoffs. And last season the league dropped to 24 teams. Only one team finished 3-5 last season (Georgia) and they made the postseason. I made this table below to show the change we have seen in the odds of 3-5 teams.
| Season | Odds of 3-5 Making the Postseason |
| 19 | 25% |
| 20 | 50% |
| 21 | 100% |
There is a chance that last season was a fluke and that we will see more 3-5s miss the postseason in the future. However, I do believe this is an indication that 3-5 teams will have better than a 40% chance to make the playoffs. If they want a guarantee, just win one more game.
Where You Need to Be By Week 6
Week 6 is about to kick off. Here is a breakdown of how likely you are to make the playoffs by your Week 6 record. This is based on how many made it in the last three seasons with that same record.
| Record | Odds of Making the Playoffs |
| 6-0 | 100% |
| 5-1 | 100% |
| 4-2 | 100% |
| 3-3 | 86.7% |
| 2-4 | 13.3% |
| 1-5 | 12.5% |
| 0-6 | 0% |
If you have four or more wins you are a lock, but we already knew that from the info above. If you have three wins at the end of this week, your odds of making the playoffs are really good. 13 of the 15 teams that have had 3-3 records after Week 6 have made the playoffs. The only team to miss was Clemson in Season 19 and Season 20. Both times they lost all of their remaining games.
If you only have 2 wins at the end of Week 6, things are tough, but not impossible. Two of the 15 teams that have been 2-4 after Week Six have punched their ticket. That is Season 20 Illinois and Season 21 Penn State. Your odds don’t change much if you are a one-win team. Eight teams have been 1-5 after six weeks in the last three seasons. Only Season 21 Georgia has made the playoffs from that record.
No team has made the postseason after a 0-6 start. The best they could manage is 2-6 on the season and we have yet to see a 2-6 team get in.
It is never too late to put on your run. Week 6 is the time to do it. It is ticket-punching season; go get yours!
