By: Ryan Moreland (@ryanmoreland)
It is time to dig into the nitty-gritty of tiebreakers and playoff scenarios! We will start in the wild ACC which just got a lot more interesting this season. Before we get into the current standings, let’s take a quick look at the tiebreakers:
| Order | Tiebreaker |
| 1 | Conference Record |
| 2 | Head-to-Head |
| 3 | Record vs common conference opponents |
| 4 | Point differential vs common conference opponents |
| 5 | Record vs common overall opponents |
| 6 | Point differential vs common overall opponents |
| 7 | Overall record |
| 8 | Overall point differential |
Since every conference team will eventually play each other, most ties will end with a head-to-head. However, there can be scenarios that take us much deeper (just look at the Big XII last season).
Now, for how the playoffs work. The top three teams in each conference will get an automatic bid into the playoffs. After that has been settled, then the last 4 teams will be voted in by a league-wide vote. After the field is set, seeding will begin. This season, the top 8 teams will be seeded and then they will get to draft their opening-round opponents (which I cannot wait to write content about).
I cannot predict which way the vote will go, so for these articles, I will be focusing on the automatic bids.
Also, keep in mind that three-way tiebreakers are broken for the top team and then the two remaining games go back to head-to-head.
Current Standings
| Team | Overall Record | Conference Record | Tiebreaker Reason (if applicable) |
| Miami | 5-1 | 3-0 | |
| Virginia Tech | 4-2 | 2-1 | Head-to-Head Win |
| Florida State | 4-2 | 2-1 | Head-to-Head Loss |
| Clemson | 2-4 | 1-2 | |
| North Carolina | 4-2 | 1-2 | Head-to-Head Loss |
| Notre Dame | 1-5 | 0-3 |
Right now the tiebreakers in the ACC are simple. Virginia Tech beat Florida State in Week 5 and Clemson upset North Carolina this past week. These could loom large at the end of the season.
Before we get into playoff scenarios, let’s look at the race for the ACC Championship.
Conference Title Race
Miami is firmly in control of the title race. If they beat Notre Dame and Florida State in the final two weeks they will earn their fourth conference title. They also hold a head-to-head tiebreaker over Virginia Tech after beating them last week. However, that Florida State game could easily become the key factor in this race.
Virginia Tech would need some help to get over Miami. This would either mean Miami losing out (while Virginia Tech wins out) or entering a three-way tie with Miami and Florida State. That tiebreaker would then be solved by point differential among common conference opponents. Right now the Hokies have a distinct advantage in in-conference point differential (V Tech- +35, Miami- +27, Florida State- +9).
Florida State could end up in the tie, as we just talked about, but there is another way to get another conference title for Grin. If Florida State ties Miami with a win over the Hurricanes AND Virginia Tech drops a game to fall behind the tie, then the Seminoles will win the ACC.
Clemson and North Carolina could still tie Miami, but they would both lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to the Hurricanes. So, they would need a three (or more) way tie to get a conference championship. Even then, they would also need to greatly improve their in-conference point differential to get in.
Notre Dame is mathematically eliminated from conference title contention.
Playoff Race
There is a very small chance that the Hurricanes could miss the playoffs, but for that to happen, they would need to lose out AND Clemson or North Carolina needs to win out. If the Hurricanes beat Notre Dame this week they will punch their ticket.
Virginia Tech’s playoff odds are high, but they could still miss out. The Hokies have to play the two teams directly behind them still. If Virginia Tech beats Clemson this week they will punch their ticket.
Florida State can punch their ticket with a win over North Carolina this week AND a Clemson loss to Virginia Tech. There is a very small chance that FSU could win and still end up in a three-way tie for second place with Clemson and Virginia Tech. That would cause a point differential tiebreaker.
Clemson saved their playoff hopes with a massive upset over North Carolina. Getting into the top three will still be an uphill battle. If they beat Virginia Tech this week, they would jump into the top 3. If they lose this week they will be eliminated from top three contention (unless they end up in a crazy tie, which they would likely still lose the tiebreaker).
North Carolina could also enter the top 3 with a win this week over Florida State. If the Tar Heels lose to Florida State AND Virginia Tech wins over Clemson, then North Carolina will be mathematically eliminated from automatic bid contention.
Notre Dame is not officially eliminated, but they would need to enter a crazy tie and win their next two games by a lot to get in. They will be officially eliminated if they lose this week to Miami.
