By: Ryan Moreland (@ryanmoreland)
We have a great race going on in the Big10 that hasn’t been what we expected. Before we dive in, let’s go over tiebreakers.
| Order | Tiebreaker |
| 1 | Conference Record |
| 2 | Head-to-Head |
| 3 | Record vs common conference opponents |
| 4 | Point differential vs common conference opponents |
| 5 | Record vs common overall opponents |
| 6 | Point differential vs common overall opponents |
| 7 | Overall record |
| 8 | Overall point differential |
Since every conference team will eventually play each other, most ties will end with a head-to-head. However, there can be scenarios that take us much deeper (just look at the Big XII last season).
Now, for how the playoffs work. The top three teams in each conference will get an automatic bid into the playoffs. After that has been settled, then the last 4 teams will be voted in by a league-wide vote. After the field is set, seeding will begin. This season, the top 8 teams will be seeded and then they will get to draft their opening-round opponents (which I cannot wait to write content about).
I cannot predict which way the vote will go, so for these articles, I will be focusing on the automatic bids.
Also, keep in mind that three-way tiebreakers are broken for the top team and then the two remaining games go back to head-to-head.
Current Standings
| Team | Overall Record | Conference Record | Tiebreaker Reason (if applicable) |
| USC | 5-1 | 3-0 | |
| Michigan State | 4-2 | 2-1 | Point differential vs common conference opponents (43) |
| Michigan | 3-3 | 2-1 | Point differential vs common conference opponents (38) |
| Ohio State | 4-2 | 1-2 | Point differential vs common conference opponents (-26) |
| Oregon | 3-3 | 1-2 | Point differential vs common conference opponents (-34) |
| Penn State | 0-6 | 0-3 | |
Both ties in the Big10 will play this week, so the tiebreakers won’t be the decider for long.
Conference Title Race
USC is the front-runner here. All they need to do is keep winning and they will get their first conference title since Season 10.
USC also has wins over Michigan and Michigan State, so they have the tiebreaker over them. This means that if USC wins this week over Penn State, then they will be the conference champs. The Spartans and Wolverines need to win out AND have USC lose out for them to pass the Trojans.
Oregon is the only other team with a chance to win the conference title. They would need USC to lose out AND they need to win out. They place USC in the last week of the season, so this would give them the tiebreaker over USC if it happened.
Playoff Race
USC has punched their ticket. While three teams could technically catch them, Michigan and Michigan State play each other. One of them has to lose, which means they can’t catch the Trojans. So, congrats to Jacob and his team.
Michigan State can punch their ticket with a win over Michigan this week. Either Ohio State or Oregon could tie them, but the Spartans have beaten both teams already.
Michigan can also clinch this week, but they need some help. They need to beat Michigan State AND they need Ohio State to lose to Oregon.
Ohio State has a few scenarios that would put them into the top three, but the easiest way is path goes through Michigan. If the Buckeyes win out, including a win over Michigan, then they will get in.
Oregon is still in the running, but they need help. They either need a 3-way tie or either of the Michigan schools to lose out.
Penn State does have a path, but it is very narrow. They would need Michigan State to lose out, they would need to win out, AND either Oregon or Ohio State would lose out too. If all that happened, they would land in third.
