By: Ryan Moreland (@ryanmoreland)
The SEC has been an unpredictable conference this season. Before we get into the thick of it, here is a reminder about tiebreakers.
| Order | Tiebreaker |
| 1 | Conference Record |
| 2 | Head-to-Head |
| 3 | Record vs common conference opponents |
| 4 | Point differential vs common conference opponents |
| 5 | Record vs common overall opponents |
| 6 | Point differential vs common overall opponents |
| 7 | Overall record |
| 8 | Overall point differential |
Since every conference team will eventually play each other, most ties will end with a head-to-head. However, there can be scenarios that take us much deeper (just look at the Big XII last season).
Now, for how the playoffs work. The top three teams in each conference will get an automatic bid into the playoffs. After that has been settled, then the last 4 teams will be voted in by a league-wide vote. After the field is set, seeding will begin. This season, the top 8 teams will be seeded and then they will get to draft their opening-round opponents (which I cannot wait to write content about).
I cannot predict which way the vote will go, so for these articles, I will be focusing on the automatic bids.
Also, keep in mind that three-way tiebreakers are broken for the top team and then the two remaining games go back to head-to-head.
Current Standings
| Team | Overall Record | Conference Record | Tiebreaker Reason (if applicable) |
| Alabama | 6-0 | 3-0 | Point differential vs common conference opponents (+56) |
| Florida | 4-2 | 3-0 | Point differential vs common conference opponents (+25) |
| Auburn | 4-2 | 2-1 | |
| Georgia | 1-5 | 1-2 | |
| Kentucky | 0-6 | 0-3 | Point differential vs common conference opponents (-20) |
| Tennessee | 2-4 | 0-3 | Point differential vs common conference opponents (-57) |
Alabama will play Florida this coming week, which means this tie will not last long. This game will decide a lot in the conference, but more on that later. Kentucky and Tennessee will not face until Week 8.
Conference Title Race
Despite having the best record in the league, Alabama doesn’t have the easiest route to the conference title; Florida does. This is because the Gators have already beaten Auburn this season. So, if Florida beats Alabama this coming week, Florida will win the first conference title in school history.
Alabama can also clinch the conference title this week if their hated rival helps them. The Crimson Tide would need to win AND Auburn to lose to Kentucky for them to win their fourth conference title this week. No matter what else happens, if Alabama wins both of their final games, then they will be the conference champ.
Auburn is going to hate this, but they need to be rooting for Alabama this week. The only way for the Tigers to repeat as SEC Champs is for Alabama to beat Florida. Then Auburn would need to beat Alabama. If Florida loses Week 8, then Auburn would be the champs. If Florida wins the final week, then we head into a 3-way tie for first that would be decided by point differential vs common conference opponents. Right now, Alabama has a solid advantage in this stat (Alabama +56, Florida +25, Auburn +19).
No other team can win the conference title.
Playoff Race
Alabama has already punched their ticket. If they were to lose out, the worst they would finish is 3rd. Congrats to Ware and his squad.
Florida could still be caught by Georgia, who they will play in Week 8. This means they haven’t punched their ticket yet. However, they will punch their ticket with a win this week OR a Georgia loss.
Auburn hasn’t locked anything in place yet, but they have put themselves in a good spot. The Tigers have a head-to-head win over Tennessee and Georgia. This means these teams can’t win a 2-team tie with Auburn. If Auburn wins this week they will punch their ticket.
Georgia needs a little help. They need either Auburn to lose out, while they win out or Florida to lose to set up a ‘win-in-your-in’ game for the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party.
Kentucky still has a chance, but they need the stars to align. First, they must beat Auburn and Tennessee to finish the season. Next, they would need Auburn to lose to Alabama in Week 8. They would also need Georgia to lose both of their remaining. If all of that happens, they will finish the season tied with Auburn for the 3rd spot. They would have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Tigers. There is also a chance for them to get in if Georgia finishes the last two 1-1, but that would make Georgia, Auburn, and Kentucky all tied for the last automatic bid. Right now, Auburn has a distinct advantage in point differential vs common conference opponents (Auburn +24, Kentucky -20, Georgia -21).
Tennessee has been mathematically eliminated from automatic bid contention. The best they can do is tie Auburn, but they would lose the tiebreaker (even if they tied with Georgia, who is the only 3-way tie they have possible). However, finishing the season with 4 wins would turn a lot of voters heads.
