By: Ryan Moreland (@ryanmoreland)
The ACC is coming down to a wild finish. In this article, we will cover the scenarios and odds for each team. First, let’s look at how the tiebreakers will work.
| Order | Tiebreaker |
| 1 | Conference Record |
| 2 | Head-to-Head |
| 3 | Record vs common conference opponents |
| 4 | Point differential vs common conference opponents |
| 5 | Record vs common overall opponents |
| 6 | Point differential vs common overall opponents |
| 7 | Overall record |
| 8 | Overall point differential |
Since every conference team will eventually play each other, most ties will end with a head-to-head. However, there can be scenarios that take us much deeper (just look at the Big XII last season).
Now, for how the playoffs work. The top three teams in each conference will get an automatic bid into the playoffs. After that has been settled, then the last 4 teams will be voted in by a league-wide vote. After the field is set, seeding will begin. This season, the top 8 teams will be seeded and then they will get to draft their opening-round opponents.
I cannot predict which way the vote will go, so for these articles, I will be focusing on the automatic bids.
Also, keep in mind that three-way tiebreakers are broken for the top team and then the two remaining games go back to head-to-head.
Current Standings
| Team | Overall Record | Conference Record | Tiebreaker Reason (if applicable) |
| Miami | 6-1 | 4-0 | |
| Virginia Tech | 5-2 | 3-1 | Head-to-Head |
| Florida State | 5-2 | 3-1 | Head-to-Head |
| Clemson | 2-5 | 1-3 | Head-to-Head |
| North Carolina | 4-3 | 1-3 | Head-to-Head |
| Notre Dame | 1-6 | 0-4 |
The top three in the ACC are set. Miami, Virginia Tech, and Florida State will be the three teams earning the automatic bids. However, the finishing order is up in the air. All three teams could finish in first, second, or third. Let’s talk about what each team needs to do to finish as conference champs.
All Miami needs to do is win. The Hurricanes are a game ahead of Virginia Tech and Florida State, so a win would make them unreachable. If they beat Florida State, Miami will get their fourth conference championship.
Florida State has a chance to win their fifth conference championship if they beat Miami and Virginia Tech loses to Clemson. Then they would tie Miami at 4-1 in the conference and they would have the tiebreaker.
For Virginia Tech to win their first conference championship, things need to get murky. They would need Florida State to beat Miami AND they would need to beat Clemson. However, this wouldn’t give them an automatic win. It would put Florida State, Miami, and Virginia Tech in a three-way tie for first. In this scenario, Miami beat Virginia Tech, Virginia Tech beat Florida State, and Florida State beat Miami. This means that no one can separate themselves by head-to-head. The deciding tiebreaker would then go to the point differential within the conference. Here is where each team stands in in-conference point differential:
| Team | Point Differential Against Common Conference Opponents |
| Virginia Tech | +38 |
| Miami | +37 |
| Florida State | +29 |
Tech holds a solid advantage. Remember, for this tiebreaker to matter, Miami will need to lose, which will drop their net score. Also, keep in mind that this tiebreaker would only be used to break the tie for first place. Then you would restart the tiebreakers to break the tie between the two remaining teams. This means, that (if they stay in this order) Virginia Tech would be first, Florida State would be second, and Miami would finish third.
Lastly, let’s look at the odds for each of these teams to finish as the top team. This is based on the algorithm I debuted last week. To factor in three-way ties, you automatically get 1/3 of the odds of that outcome.
| Team | Odds to Win the Conference |
| Miami | 68.9% |
| Florida State | 26.4% |
| Virginia Tech | 4.6% |
North Carolina and Clemson are eliminated from automatic bid contention, but both have a strong case to make the postseason via the vote-in. North Carolina is likely in whether they win or lose. As I showed in an article earlier this season, no four-win team has missed the playoffs since the CFSL switched to the current playoff method. The Tar Heels already have four wins this season, which means they should be in.
Alternatively, no two-win team has ever made the postseason in the current playoff system. That means Clemson has a must-win game against Notre Dame if they want to get into the postseason. According to the odds predictor, Clemson has a 78.8% chance to win their final game.
