JTR QB Rankings: Season 23, Week 1

By: Ryan Moreland (@ryanmoreland)

The end of the first week means the return of the JTR QB Rankings! This is a QB Matrix designed to rank the QBs in the league, while taking every stat into account. Here is exactly how it works.

How JTR Works

JTR ranks players by comparison to the league average using unbiased stats. By unbiased stats, we mean stats that don’t show a preference for one style of play over another. For example, we expect a quarterback in an air raid system to throw the ball more often than a quarterback in a multiple set. So comparing the two based on completions wouldn’t be fair. Once we determine stats that we believe to be unbiased, we create a league average. Outperforming the league average earns a player positive points. Stats that fall below the league average will earn a player negative points. Points for each stat are calculated and combined with a base rating given to each player. The combination results in a player’s JTR metric score. 0 is the worst possible score, and 100 is the best possible score.

For QBs, the stats we chose to use are completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdown percentage, interception percentage, passing yards per game, and unique rushing index. The rushing index excludes sacks from a quarterback’s rush totals to get a more accurate sense of them as a runner. Also, QBs cannot take negative points from the rushing index (outside of fumbles). A quarterback’s running ability is a plus but not a requirement.

JTR is not a predictive metric. It cannot tell the future. It can only measure what a player has done up to that point.

JTR Leaderboard

Findings

For the first time in JTR history, Alexa Earl will take the top spot. This is the first time any Oregon player has been #1 in the JTR. She did this with a splendid performance against Georgia. She threw for 520 yards, 5 touchdowns, and no interceptions.

This week we saw the most career highs than we have in any week since they started (Season 21). This was helped in part by a large freshman QB class, but there were a few standout sophomores that also set career highs (Texas A&M’s Malcom Streets, Clemson’s Bojack Merriweather, and Alexa Earl). So much for the sophomore slump.

This week, like normal in Week 1, the base score is lower. This is because the more games we see, the closer the scores get. In Week 1, the gap is quite large between the top and the bottom, but by Week 8, it is normally half the size. This means that most of our QBs will get a nice bump in score next week, even if they are not playing at their best.

Good luck to all the QBs in Week 2!