By: Heath Moorman (@Heat1017)
Penn State Grew Wheels
Penn State is taking a unique route to success in the CFSL by pounding the football on the ground rather than airing it out. The CFSL hasn’t seen many ground games at this level in my short time here. Let’s take a look at the most recent teams to have two top 10 rushers in a season.
Last season, we saw Oklahoma’s Del Este and Michael combine for 1,571 yards rushing, putting them both in the top 10 for the stat.
In Season 21, we saw two pairs of QB and HB duos who secured top 10 spots. Oklahoma’s Del Este was again in this group with teammate DJ Yost. But it was Auburn’s Scally and Duke who led the duos in this season, rushing for 2,169 total yards.
The next pair of rushers from a single team dates back to Season 17, with Pitt’s Myers and Eldridge making the list. The pair only combined for 1,583 rushing yards.
At their current pace, Penn State’s Colter Thomas and Richard Williams II could pass Season 21’s leaders in Scally and Duke. They currently combine for 1,031 rushing yards through 3 games, or 343.67 yards per game. That puts them on pace to reach 2,749.33 by the end of the regular season if they’re able to keep the momentum rolling as we enter Conference play. My first hot take this week is that Thomas and Williams II not only pass that number, but that they’ll reach 3,000 combined rushing yards by season’s end.
Tide Needs a Turnaround
After falling to three teams who each have a visit to the championship game in the last two seasons, Alabama’s hopes are not spent. In fact, in recent history, we’ve seen a team rally from 0-3 to make the playoffs and reach the championship in Season 22, Texas A&M.
Breaking down the stats, Alabama doesn’t look like a 0-3 team, either. They rep a -14 point differential. They have also outgained their opponents in two of the three. An area they’ve struggled in is turnover margin, where they’re currently eight turnovers to only four by their opponents. If they even this up and capitalize on opportunities, that -14 point differential could easily be +14 and 3-0.
The Tide is still one of the most dangerous teams in the SEC heading into conference play, but I’m here for a hot take, and that hot take is that we’re in low-tide for Season 23. Alabama drops two in conference play, ending the regular season at 3-5. They make the vote in, where they’ll then need to win at least two straight to keep their streak of non-losing seasons going. Despite being one of the best teams in the CFSL this season, the Tide doesn’t turn and ends Season 23 below .500.
Nebraska is on the Rise
After dropping their Week 1 matchup with rival Iowa, Nebraska has been climbing. They are doing so in a similar fashion to Penn State, with HB Tyler Archer and QB Lincoln League each also landing in the top 10 for rushing yards to this point in the season. It’ll be a race to the finish for these two teams to see who can claim the team rushing title at the end.
It is no surprise that 5 of the 6 worst rushing defenses in the league to this point have all played one of these two teams, with the two trading some good film heading into conference play, as the other has already played some of their conference foes. The sixth member of those worst rushing defenses played Colorado’s Taylor James in week 1.
Last week, Nebraska AD Noah Johnson said he thought they could sneak out two conference wins, putting them at 4-4 at the end of regular-season play. My hot take is that they will not only accomplish that, but exceed that by upsetting one of the upper-ranked Big XII teams.
Quick Hitters – Champs Edition
ACC Champ – the conference champ coming out of the ACC seems like it should be straightforward forward, seeing how Miami handled the non-conference schedule it was dealt. However, it will not be Miami hoisting the Crystal Football at the end of Season 23, but North Carolina.
Big 10 – The Big 10 is a harder field to analyze, with only two teams entering conference play above .500. Currently, those two teams (Iowa and Penn State) face each other in Week 8. This will wind up being considered the conference championship game, with Iowa finding a way to bring conference play to a close with a fairytale return to the CFSL
Big XII – Oklahoma is the frontrunner in the Big XII, but they also have Colorado and Texas A&M to contend with. Previously, I had said these three teams would be competing for a title in week 7. This happens if they each have one win and one loss against each other, and the series goes to tiebreakers. However, this also assumes they all win out against other conference opponents, and I predict Oklahoma to fall bait to the Nebraska trap set for them in Week 8. Giving the winner of the Colorado vs. Texas A&M game in Week 7 the title. Colorado wins this one handily.
SEC – The SEC is, in my opinion, the hardest conference to judge this early. I genuinely thought of assigning the teams to a side of a six-sided dice and leaving it to chance here, but I think we can do much better than that. Auburn has looked poised and balanced this season. They do carry one loss to Ohio State with them, but they’ll be seething for revenge in the playoffs if given the chance.
