By: Ryan Moreland (@ryanmoreland)
We are closing quickly on the end of the season, and these conference races are red hot. We will start breaking down these races in the stacked ACC conference. Before we dive in, here is a reminder of how the tiebreakers work.
| Order | Tiebreaker |
| 1 | Conference Record |
| 2 | Head-to-Head |
| 3 | Record vs common conference opponents |
| 4 | Point differential vs common conference opponents |
| 5 | Record vs common overall opponents |
| 6 | Point differential vs common overall opponents |
| 7 | Overall record |
| 8 | Overall point differential |
Since every conference team will eventually play each other, most ties will end with a head-to-head. However, there can be scenarios that take us much deeper (just look at the Big XII last season).
Now, for how the playoffs work. The top three teams in each conference will get an automatic bid to the playoffs. After that has been settled, the last 4 teams will be voted in by a league-wide vote. After the field is set, seeding will begin. This season, the top 8 teams will be seeded, and then they will get to draft their opening-round opponents (which I cannot wait to write content about).
I cannot predict which way the vote will go, so for these articles, I will be focusing on the automatic bids.
Also, keep in mind that three-way tiebreakers are broken for the top team, and then the two remaining games go back to head-to-head.
Current Standings
| Team | Overall Record | Conference Record | Tiebreaker Reason (if applicable) |
| Miami | 5-1 | 2-1 | Point differential vs common conference opponents (+52) |
| Clemson | 4-2 | 2-1 | Head to Head Victories |
| Virginia Tech | 4-2 | 2-1 | Point differential vs common conference opponents (+37) |
| North Carolina | 4-2 | 2-1 | Point differential vs common conference opponents (+11) |
| Florida State | 1-5 | 1-2 | |
| Notre Dame | 0-6 | 0-3 |
This may seem complicated, so I will try to explain it as best as I can. Right now, we can’t use Head-to-Head to break current ties unless all the teams have played each other. So, in the four-way tie, it is unusable for now. So we have to drop to the Point Differential against common conference opponents. Miami has the best, so they hold the top spot in the ACC for now.
This is the part that can get confusing. Once you break the initial tie, you have to go back to the top of the tiebreaker sheet to break the next tie. Since Clemson has beaten both North Carolina and Virginia Tech, they hold the tiebreaker over them both. For the record, Clemson’s point differential against common conference opponents currently stands at +23.
Then we go back to the point differential to break the tie between North Carolina and Virginia Tech. This is because they 1) haven’t played each other, and 2) have the same record against common conference opponents.
So that gets you up to speed on where the conference is right now. Now, let’s look at the conference title race.
Conference Title Race
As you can imagine, a conference with a four-way tie at the top is pretty wide open. Any of these four teams can win the conference, and there are a million different scenarios for each. I don’t have enough time to break them all down, but I will touch on some key bullet points that will be major factors.
The first is the head-to-head advantage. Clemson’s wins over North Carolina and Virginia Tech gives them a distinct advantage over these two teams. Any two-way tie with either is an automatic win. However, the same is true for Miami over Clemson and North Carolina over Miami. If Clemson, Miami, and North Carolina were to end the season in a three-way tie, it would need to be initially broken by points differential in the conference. Virginia Tech has yet to play any team other than Clemson that is involved in the tie.
The next is going to be the point differential within the conference. As stated earlier, Miami has a real advantage here. However, it is worth noting that Clemson has by far the easiest remaining strength of schedule. Getting big wins (not only wins) might be crucial.
Outside of the four-way tie, Florida State could still win the conference title, but things would need to go their way. They would first need to win out. They would also need both North Carolina and Virginia to lose at least one game (perhaps more, depending on the scenario). The odds aren’t great, but there is a chance.
Notre Dame has been eliminated from ACC title contention. While they could get to 2-3 in conference, it is mathematically impossible for everyone in the four-way tie to stay at 2 conference wins.
Playoff Race
No one in the conference has punched their ticket at this point. However, (according to the math I did in this article), you can guarantee a playoff spot to all four teams in the tie. Whether it is as an automatic bid or as a vote-in team will be determined over the next two weeks.
Florida State has many routes to sneak into the top three. They play two of the top four teams to finish the season. Wins over one or both would greatly increase their chances.
Notre Dame is on the outside, looking in. The best they can get is two wins on the season, and a two-win team has never made the playoffs in its current format. However, they could possibly earn an automatic bid (with a lot of help). Automatic bids don’t care about your overall record. However, if they lose another game, their playoff hopes are officially dead.
