By: Ryan Moreland (@ryanmoreland)
The Big10 feels like it has been separated by a hair this season. And a very fine hair at that. Let’s refresh on the tiebreaker and dive in.
| Order | Tiebreaker |
| 1 | Conference Record |
| 2 | Head-to-Head |
| 3 | Record vs common conference opponents |
| 4 | Point differential vs common conference opponents |
| 5 | Record vs common overall opponents |
| 6 | Point differential vs common overall opponents |
| 7 | Overall record |
| 8 | Overall point differential |
Since every conference team will eventually play each other, most ties will end with a head-to-head. However, there can be scenarios that take us much deeper (just look at the Big XII last season).
Now, for how the playoffs work. The top three teams in each conference will get an automatic bid to the playoffs. After that has been settled, the last 4 teams will be voted in by a league-wide vote. After the field is set, seeding will begin. This season, the top 8 teams will be seeded, and then they will get to draft their opening-round opponents (which I cannot wait to write content about).
I cannot predict which way the vote will go, so for these articles, I will be focusing on the automatic bids.
Also, keep in mind that three-way tiebreakers are broken for the top team, and then the two remaining games go back to head-to-head.
| Team | Overall Record | Conference Record | Tiebreaker Reason (if applicable) |
| Michigan | 4-2 | 3-0 | |
| Oregon | 3-3 | 2-1 | Head-to-Head Win |
| Ohio State | 3-3 | 2-1 | Head-to-Head Loss |
| Iowa | 3-3 | 1-2 | Head-to-Head Win |
| USC | 2-4 | 1-2 | Head-to-Head Loss |
| Penn State | 3-3 | 0-3 |
The standings are pretty straightforward right now (and I thank you for that, Big10). Oregon beat Ohio State earlier this season, and Iowa beat USC. However, I have a feeling this is the calm before the storm. We shall see.
Conference Title Race
Michigan has the easiest road to a conference title. If they win out, it is all theirs. They can still drop a game and win it, depending on how everything else shakes out. But the last game of the season against Ohio State could be a de facto conference championship game.
Oregon and Ohio State are still very much alive in this race. Ohio State has an easier route since they haven’t played Michigan yet, where Oregon just lost to the Wolverines in Week 5.
Iowa and USC need a little help to get up in the title race, but it is still possible. Both teams would need a 3-way (or more) tie at the top and the best point differential in the conference for it to happen.
Penn State has been mathematically eliminated from a conference title this season.
Playoff Race
Michigan can punch its ticket to the postseason this coming week with a win. If they beat Penn State, there would be no way for any team below Oregon and Ohio State to catch them. They could also clinch the conference with a win and an Ohio State loss.
Oregon and Ohio State can help each other clinch this week. Oregon needs a win over Iowa and USC to lose to Ohio State for them to clinch. Ohio State needs to beat USC and Oregon to win over Iowa. If that were to happen, the top three could be decided going into the final week.
No one else can clinch this week, but Iowa and USC getting wins would drastically improve their odds of a top-three finish. It would also create a lot of chaos in the Big10.
Penn State still has decent odds at the playoffs. While getting into the top three would be incredibly difficult (but not impossible), they do have three wins right now. As stated earlier, no four-win team has ever missed the postseason in the current playoff format. That isn’t to say it is impossible, but it hasn’t happened yet. This means there could be a possible scenario in which every Big10 team makes the playoffs. I will say I think it is highly unlikely, but it is possible.
