By: Heath Moorman (@heat1017)
Writing Their Destiny
Oklahoma hasn’t been the favorite to win the Big XII since Week 1, but they’ve slowly been rewriting that narrative as the weeks creep on. Week 6 was the ultimate litmus test to see if they had the stuff or not. The test certainly proved one thing to be certain: Oklahoma’s defense is legit. Arguably, the best defense in the league. They just held the previously top-producing offense in the league to 407 yards of offense and 27 points. Dropping them into second place for total offensive yards.
Oklahoma’s offense put up respectable numbers, and have put up respectable numbers all season. Their early games have ballooned their offensive numbers, but lately they’ve slowed in most categories, as is expected by most teams in the CFSL. Key numbers to look at for Oklahoma’s offense are an even 50% 3rd-down rate on the season, 82% red zone points % on the season, and 4.9 points per red zone attempt.
Oklahoma still has two conference foes to face before officially completing an undefeated regular season. West Virginia and Nebraska. I had claimed earlier in the season that Week 6 would be the championship decider in the Big XII, and I was essentially correct. Although Oklahoma technically has to beat at least one of their next two opponents to claim the trophy, they are fully in control of their destiny now. They win one, and they carry the trophy home to Norman and can go celebrate at O’Connell’s.
One important thing to keep in mind as Oklahoma starts seeing the playoffs on the horizon, their 4.9 points per red zone attempt ranks 6th worst in the league. Can their defense carry them to the glory land without improvements to their offense in this important category? If their offense simply controls time of possession, is that enough to allow their defense to control the rest of the game? We’ll have to see whether the Oklahoma staff decides to make any changes this week and next as experiments before the win-or-go-home games coming in three weeks.
Aggie Dynasty
It is no secret that Texas A&M has been one of the top-performing teams in the CFSL in recent seasons. They’ve gone to the championship in back-to-back seasons now and are seeking a third trip this season, I’m sure. They are, however, probably one of the more disappointing performers on the season as they’ve yet to separate themselves from the pack in the league as a whole. They’re right at the top of the middle group of teams that will all be vying for a playoff spot. But they were right in this spot last season as well. They were faced with an even stronger challenge last season after opening the season 0-3. This season, they’re currently 4-2 with losses to defending champ Miami and likely conference champ Oklahoma. They’re chances of going 6-2 to finish regular season play are higher than finishing 4-4 like last season. This will mean they will very likely have a chance to pick who they will play in round 1.
I mentioned that this is one of the more disappointing performances by a team in the league this season. I should elaborate more on that statement. Texas A&M finished second last season behind Miami, and they showed in the playoffs that their 4-4 record was not a reflection of their true capability. They were essentially a team built mostly of second and third-year players last season, and only graduated two (albeit two of their premier performers) seniors. The Aggie offense has looked electric this season, but their defense has been average to below average despite having a lot of veteran players on that side of the ball. This is also Texas A&M’s 4th season in its return to the CFSL. This means it is the last season for Padgett to get his foundational recruiting class a trophy. They were able to carry the conference title home last season despite falling to Oklahoma. This season, it appears they won’t be lucky enough for that to happen.
If I’ve learned one thing from watching Kade’s teams these last few seasons, it’s that they show up big time later in the season. I’m not sure that this team has all the pieces to go and win a Championship, but I do know that Kade will be putting his team in the right position to go and grab it.
Colorado’s Championship Case Gone
Colorado was my preseason #2 in the Big XII behind Texas A&M. They’ve bounced around in the top few of my rankings throughout the season, but have landed themselves in a position that almost certainly has them finishing 3rd in conference. Pinning them at finishing 3rd assumes that they lose to Texas A&M, then beat West Virginia in week 8. While Oklahoma beats Nebraska in week 8, who has the tiebreaker win over Colorado? It is possible for Colorado to still find itself in 2nd place, or possibly 6th place. There are still many scenarios that can play out in the middle of the Big XII.
This is another team that has fallen short of my expectations this season, but still has an opportunity to correct itself. Colorado is one season ahead of Texas A&M on their return to the CFSL, meaning last season saw their foundational recruiting class graduate. That means this would be considered a rebuilding season by most, but I doubt if you were to ask AD Skyler Shearer about that, he would agree. This team is a mixed bag of experience from the top QB recruit, LC Fremont, to the top HB in the league, Taylor James. These two were expected to explode onto the scene this season and dominate the conference, but it seems the presence of two backfield weapons has made it a touch complicated for Colorado.
LC Fremont, the QB who was expected to be the best freshman QB in the league, is third to last in passing yards (behind only Penn State’s Colter Thomas and Nebraska’s Lincoln League, who have both been dubbed glorified HBs). He has also found himself tied for the highest INT rate on the season, despite also putting up one of the highest TD rates on the season as well.
Taylor James has mostly separated from the pack now for the rushing title, with just a handful of players being in reach (by in reach, I mean they could catch up with a miracle or two). Already eclipsing 1000 yards this season with at least two games remaining. If you assume Colorado makes the playoffs, which is very likely, then that would be three games. Extrapolating the data for those remaining games, James would eclipse 1500 yards for the season, which would be the most since Season 4 of the CFSL. James still needs 615 yards to reach old league challenger Bo Yost’s career record of 4897 yards, which would lead the modern era, had his career not been split between modern and steroid.
If Colorado wants to make a serious run for the title this season, they need to figure out how to get both of these guys going at the same time. It can’t be one or the other. James and Fremont need to be running and gunning all game long until the end of the season. I would be excited to see this play out, as it would likely also mean we could see a rusher eclipse 2000 yards this season if Colorado makes a run.
Big XII Results Week 6
Oklahoma beats Texas A&M, 30-27
Colorado beats Texas, 40-30
West Virginia beats Nebraska, 29-24
Big XII Schedule Week 7
Monday, June 16
Texas A&M vs Colorado (8:30 PM, Twitch)
Wednesday, June 18
Oklahoma vs West Virginia (8:45 PM, YouTube)
Thursday, June 19
Texas vs Nebraska (6:30 PM, YouTube)
Potential Big XII Game of the Week
The headliner game for this week is Texas A&M visiting Colorado; however, my favorite for the game of the week is the conference closer of the week between Texas and Nebraska. This game will be low on most people’s radars for importance, but I believe it has the right recipe for excitement. We’ll be seeing two teams that are vying for a playoff spot, and two teams that have struggled with identity this season. We could see two teams battling tooth and nail, while also establishing their identities late in the season.
