By: Ryan Moreland
The regular season has finished its penultimate week and the JTR QB rankings again saw some movement. Like every week we saw risers and fallers. Unlike any other week, we saw one quarterback separate himself from the rest of the pack this week. With only a week left in the regular season, can anyone catch him?
How JTR Works
JTR ranks players by their comparison to the league average using as unbiased stats as possible. By unbiased stats, we mean stats that don’t show a preference for one style of play over another. For example, we expect a quarterback in an air raid system to throw the ball more often than a quarterback in a multiple set. So comparing the two based on completions wouldn’t be fair. Once we determine stats that we believe to be unbiased, we create a league average. Outperforming the league average earns a player positive points. Stats that fall below the league average will earn a player negative points. Points for each stat are calculated and combined with a base rating given to each player. The combination results in a player’s JTR metric score. 0 is the worst possible score and 100 is the best possible score.
For QBs, the stats we chose to use are completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdown percentage, interception percentage, passing yards per game, and unique rushing index. The rushing index attempts to exclude sacks from a quarterback’s rush totals to get a more accurate sense of them as a runner. Also, QBs cannot take negative points from the rushing index (outside of fumbles). This is because a running ability for a quarterback is a plus, but not a requirement.
JTR is not a predictive metric. It cannot tell the future, only measure what a player has done up to that point.
Note: This is a complicated system that is difficult to explain in an easily digestible way. If you have more questions about how it works, please reach out. We would be more than happy to answer your questions.
JTR QB Rankings
| Rank (Last Week) | Player | Team | JTR Score (Change) |
| 1 (1) | Moses King | Kentucky | 96.653 (+0.783) |
| 2 (2) | Ryan Moreland | Oklahoma State | 90.226 (-2.578) |
| 3 (3) | Ludwig Friedman | Eastern Michigan | 89.477 (-2.398) |
| 4 (4) | Sam Dobbins | Michigan | 88.048 (+0.416) |
| 5 (7) | Mateo Walker | Miami | 83.796 (+2.054) |
| 6 (8) | Del Toro | Ohio | 81.956 (+0.192) |
| 7 (5) | Derrick Power | Oklahoma | 81.135 (-2.784) |
| 8 (6) | Logan Radloff | Ohio State | 80.008 (-2.878) |
| 9 (11) | Cece Range | Alabama | 79.272 (+2.751) |
| 10 (9) | Ryan Ravenhill | Florida State | 76.843 (+1.979) |
| 11 (10) | Baker Thomas | Auburn | 74.222 (-3.899) |
| 12 (13) | Topher Foreman | Boise State | 73.717 (-0.732) |
| 13 (12) | Avery Ware | Texas | 71.526 (-4.066) |
| 14 (16) | Ray Flash | Georgia | 70.669 (+2.843) |
| 15 (22) | Ayden Martinez | North Carolina | 66.063 (+4.819) |
| 16 (20) | Loki Gunderson | Clemson | 65.222 (+2.68) |
| 17 (19) | Tobias Johnson | Kent State | 64.889 (+0.525) |
| 18 (15) | Tony Ellis | West Virginia | 64.196 (-4.759) |
| 19 (23) | Charlie Sammons | Notre Dame | 63.832 (+5.584) |
| 20 (14) | Leisa Pink | Bowling Green | 63.726 (-6.695) |
| 21 (17) | McKade Alber | Toledo | 62.032 (-3.717) |
| 22 (18) | Terry Olliff | Northern Illinois | 61.676 (-3.193) |
| 23 (21) | Helix Myers | Pittsburgh | 59.953 (-2.766) |
| 24 (24) | Dylan Shumate | Illinois | 53.388 (-0.729) |
| 25 (26) | Brantley Gauci | Oregon | 53.367 (+1.996) |
| 26 (25) | Shaker Mayflower | Florida | 53.190 (-0.060) |
Findings
Last week’s article mentioned that as the season wears on the jumps in the polls should be smaller each week. This is because the JTR ratings are based on the season stats. The more games you play, the less that one individual game means. This is evident in the smaller movement we saw this week. However, as stated last week, there is still an opportunity to make big moves up and down the leaderboard. Just ask Notre Dame QB Charlie Sammons. Sammons had a great game against Michigan this week. This netted him a 5.584-point bump, the largest of the week. His performance moved him up four spots in the rankings.
Sammons did have the largest improvement in score this week, but it was not the largest jump up the rankings. Thanks to a great performance, and several people in front of him moving down, North Carolina’s Ayden Martinez jumped seven spots this week. Martinez’s 4.819-point bump was the second largest of the week.
Kentucky’s Moses King once again finds himself at the top of the leaderboard. Last week he became the first QB in the history of JTR to earn the top spot twice. This week he will become the first to do it thrice and the only QB to ever hold the top spot in consecutive weeks.
Last week Bowling Green’s Leisa Pink had the largest increase in rating. However, this week she saw the largest decrease of the week. Pink will still be happy, as her Falcons came out of their game with a win. The MAC has this week off before starting the MAC Tournament, where Bowling Green and their QB are expected to do well.
The bottom of the list continues to rise. This is the third straight week that the rating of the 26th-ranked QB set a new high. It is also the third consecutive week that no player scored less than 50.
