Big10 Blog: Season 21, Week 3

By: Ryan Moreland (@ryanmoreland)

How Did We Get Here?

At the beginning of the season, we asked the ADs in the Big10 to predict the final standings of the conference. Here is the order they projected:

Here is the rankings as they currently stand:

The two teams predicted to be in the basement are both in the top 3. Teams picked to be playoff teams are struggling. This leaves us with the question: What in the hell is going on in the Big10?

Now, the obvious answer would be scheduling. We all know not all schedules are created equal. For instance, both Michigan and Penn State have a SOS (win percentage of teams they have played) of .666. Michigan State and Ohio State, however, both have an SOS of .333. This plays a role in what we have seen so far, but I don’t think it tells the whole story.

I think the real story has been the overlooking of what Ohio State and Michigan State accomplished in the offseason. Both teams finished 1-5 in conference play last season and finished in last and second-to-last. However, this offseason both teams hit the recruiting trail hard. The Buckeyes and Spartans of Season 21 are not the same as Season 20. They are contenders that could easily win the conference.

Do not operate under the illusion that they are only doing well because of their schedule. If you do, you might be looking up at them in the conference rankings come playoff time.

The Battle Begins

Out-of-conference play is fun. We get to see some old rivalries renewed and see some matchups we rarely ever see. Sure, those wins will help in playoff seeding, but the losses don’t have the same sting. However, all of that is gone.

Now every game will help shape the story of your season. Do you want to make the playoffs? Well, it is time to wake up and dominate. There is no “well get ’em next week” once the war starts. And the war starts on Monday.

Three teams will get automatic bids into the playoffs. Three teams will be praying they get voted in by the league. The problem is, I see six teams in this conference with playoff potential.

USC, Michigan, and Penn State seemed like the obvious playoff choices in the preseason, but now there is some doubt. Michigan State and Ohio State are much improved and ready to show the old guard up. Oregon is off to a rough start, but if history has taught us anything, it’s that the Ducks are at their best when no one outside of Eugene believes in them.

I think this will be the most interesting and tight playoff race I have seen in my time in the CFSL. I could see this going many different ways and there is no telling who will come out on top. If you are a fan of mayhem, don’t miss out on any Big10 game for the rest of the season.

The Sparty Paradox

Michigan State might be the hardest team to get a read on in the CFSL this season. On paper, they have a stacked roster full of big names and great players. They look like they could be the best team in the league. However, they opened up the season with a loss to Texas A&M in which they looked far from the best.

They bounced back in a major way in Week Two. The Spartans blew out Tennessee 55-6 in a game where QB Cole Mantell threw for over 500 yards. Well, Week 1 is always a crapshoot, right? It was an off week for the Spartans and they are for real.

Fast forward to Friday night when Michigan State struggled to put away Clemson. The Spartans did come up with the win 44-34, but this wasn’t the showing many of us expected. Michigan State came into the game favored by 19.5 points. The young Clemson team played their butts off and made the Michigan State fans a little nervous.

Now, a win is a win. The Spartans have won two straight heading into conference play. However, I am still not sure exactly what to make of this team. Are they an elite contender or are they still working their way up? All we can do is wait and watch and hope this mystery gets an answer.

Games from Week Two

Florida State 34, Penn State 24

Miami 48, Miami 46

North Carolina 40, Oregon 16

Ohio State 56, Virginia Tech 38

Michigan State 44, Clemson 34

USC 41, Notre Dame 14

Week 3 Schedule

Monday

Michigan at USC (8:30 PM on Twitch)

Tuesday

Michigan State at Ohio State (8:30 PM on Twitch)

Wednesday

Penn State at Oregon (8:30 PM on Twitch)

Potential Game of the Week

All three games should be electric, but if I am forced to choose one it is Michigan State and Ohio State. Both teams have been hot the last few weeks and both want to be the team that shocks the conference. They will get their chance to advance toward that goal, while also making the other take a step back.

Keep in mind that Michigan State only won one game last season. And that was against Ohio State. That game was a 48-46 nailbiter. Let’s hope this one is just the same!