By: Ryan Moreland (@ryanmoreland)
Who would have thought we would have been here at the beginning of the season? Ohio State stands alone at the top with Michigan State right behind them. These are crazy times in the Big10 and they might get even weirder.
Before we jump into it, let’s take a quick refresher on the tiebreakers and how to get into the playoffs. Here are the tiebreakers in order:
| Order | Tiebreaker |
| 1 | Conference Record |
| 2 | Head-to-Head |
| 3 | Record vs common conference opponents |
| 4 | Point differential vs common conference opponents |
| 5 | Record vs common overall opponents |
| 6 | Point differential vs common overall opponents |
| 7 | Overall record |
| 8 | Overall point differential |
Since every conference team will eventually play each other, most ties will end at head-to-head. However, there can be scenarios that take us much deeper (just look at the ACC last season).
Now, for how the playoffs work. The top three teams in each conference will get an automatic bid into the playoffs. After that has been settled, then the last 4 teams will be voted in by a league-wide vote. After the field is set, seeding will begin. This season, the top 8 teams will be seeded and then they will get to draft their opening-round opponents (which I cannot wait to write content about).
I cannot predict which way the vote will go, so for these articles, I will be focusing on the automatic bids.
Current Standings
| Team | Overall Record | Season Record |
| Ohio State | 6-0 | 3-0 |
| Michigan State | 4-2 | 2-1 |
| USC | 5-1 | 2-1 |
| Michigan | 1-5 | 1-2 |
| Penn State | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Oregon | 0-6 | 0-3 |
Michigan State holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over USC, which means that not only do they win the tiebreaker right now, but they will win any tie with USC unless a third team were to join the tie.
The tie between Michigan and Penn State is currently broken by points against common conference opponents. This will not be the tiebreaker for long, as these two teams will play next week.
Conference Title Race
The Big10 Conference Race is Ohio State’s to lose. If they beat USC this week then they will be the Season 21 Big10 Champs. However, If USC wins, that would put Ohio State, USC, and Michigan State into a three-way tie (assuming Michigan State beats Oregon next week). This tie right before Week 8 must happen for USC and Michigan State to win the conference.
If the teams are all tied heading into the final week, then the following scenarios would be possible:
- USC wins, OSU and MSU lose = USC conference Champs
- OSU wins, USC and MSU lose = OSU conference Champs
- MSU wins, USC and OSU lose = MSU conference Champs
- USC wins, OSU wins, and MSU loses = USC conference Champs
- USC wins, MSU wins, and OSU loses = MSU conference Champs
- MSU wins, OSU wins, and USC loses = OSU Champs
If all three teams were to win then the three-way tie would remain and the conference champion would be decided by point differential against common conference opponents. Right now, Ohio State has a solid advantage in conference point differential, but that could change a lot in the final two weeks.
If all three teams lose in the final week, there is a possibility that Penn State or Michigan could join the tie, which would still ultimately come down to a point differential against common conference opponents.
Playoff Race
Ohio State wins this week and they punch their ticket. They could also punch their ticket with a loss and a Penn State win over Michigan.
USC also punches their ticket with a win this week. If they lose, the winner of the Penn State and Michigan game could still possibly pass them in conference record, which would push USC to 4th.
Michigan State would punch their ticket this week with a win AND a Penn State loss. If Penn State beats Michigan, then they could still catch up to Michigan State since the two teams play in Week 8.
Both Penn State and Michigan’s chances are tied to their game the loser of that game will be mathematically eliminated from automatic bid contention. For Michigan, they need to beat Penn State, beat Ohio State, AND have one of the following happen:
- Ohio State loses both remaining games
- Michigan State loses both remaining games
- USC loses both remaining games
For Penn State, they need the win over Michigan AND beat Michigan State. If they do that, they will push Michigan State to 4th place and take the last automatic bid.
Oregon has a chance still, but their hopes are slim. Oregon has to beat both Michigan State and USC to end the season. They also need one of the following scenarios to play out:
- USC loses to Ohio State AND both Penn State and Michigan lose at least 1 game.
- Michigan State loses to Penn State AND Penn State loses to Michigan AND Michigan loses to Ohio State.
This race could heat up with some well-timed upsets. Best of luck to all the Big10 squads.
