By: Ryan Moreland (@ryanmoreland)
Texas is trying to win the conference for the third straight season, but some hungry teams are waiting just below them that would love nothing more than to spoil the Longhorns’ efforts. And that is nothing compared to the race for an automatic bid.
Before we jump into it, let’s take a quick refresher on the tiebreakers and how to get into the playoffs. Here are the tiebreakers in order:
| Order | Tiebreaker |
| 1 | Conference Record |
| 2 | Head-to-Head |
| 3 | Record vs common conference opponents |
| 4 | Point differential vs common conference opponents |
| 5 | Record vs common overall opponents |
| 6 | Point differential vs common overall opponents |
| 7 | Overall record |
| 8 | Overall point differential |
Since every conference team will eventually play each other, most ties will end at head-to-head. However, there can be scenarios that take us much deeper (just look at the ACC last season).
Now, for how the playoffs work. The top three teams in each conference will get an automatic bid into the playoffs. After that has been settled, then the last 4 teams will be voted in by a league-wide vote. After the field is set, seeding will begin. This season, the top 8 teams will be seeded and then they will get to draft their opening-round opponents (which I cannot wait to write content about).
I cannot predict which way the vote will go, so for these articles, I will be focusing on the automatic bids.
Current Standings
| Team | Overall Record | Season Record |
| Texas | 5-1 | 3-0 |
| Colorado | 3-3 | 2-1 |
| Texas A&M | 4-2 | 2-1 |
| Oklahoma | 5-1 | 2-1 |
| LSU | 1-5 | 0-3 |
| West Virginia | 0-6 | 0-3 |
This is not a typo. As it stands right now, Colorado is second in the conference. That is because they beat Texas A&M and the Aggies beat Oklahoma. However, Colorado and Oklahoma will play this coming week, which could drastically change the standings.
LSU also breaks the tie with West Virginia because of a better point differential against common conference opponents.
Conference Title Race
The conference title race in the Big 12 is down to four teams. Texas has the easiest route. If Texas wins both remaining games, they win the conference title. They could also become conference champs if they beat Texas A&M and Oklahoma loses to Colorado this week.
For Colorado to become conference champs they would need to win both of their remaining games AND Texas must lose both of their remaining game.
Texas A&M needs to beat Texas this week to have a chance at a conference title. After that, they need to stay one game ahead of Colorado, since they can’t beat the Buffaloes in a two-way tie.
Oklahoma needs to win both of their remaining games and stay one game ahead of Texas A&M since the Aggies hold the tiebreaker over them.
LSU and West Virginia are mathematically eliminated from competing for a conference title this season.
Playoff Race
Texas can punch their ticket to the playoffs in a few different ways this week. The first (and simplest) is to win. If Texas beats Texas A&M, the worst they could finish is second place. They could also punch their ticket this week with a Colorado loss, even if Texas loses.
Colorado punches their ticket this week if they win AND Texas A&M loses. If they and the Aggies won, their playoff hopes would still be high, but not assured.
Texas A&M can punch their ticket this week with a win over Texas AND an Oklahoma loss.
Oklahoma cannot punch their ticket this week. However, they can’t greatly improve their odds by beating Colorado. It also would help them to see Texas A&M lose to Texas.
Both LSU and West Virginia’s hopes at an automatic bid are still alive. They play each other this week. Whoever loses that game will be eliminated from automatic bid contention. But that is not the only way for them to be eliminated this week. Even if LSU beats the Mountaineers, they still need Texas A&M to lose. West Virginia needs the same from Colorado.
There is one scenario where the season could end in a five-way tie for first, which would be insane to see. Best of luck to all the teams in the Big 12.
