By: Ryan Moreland (@ryanmoreland)
The Big10 race has turned out far differently than expected. At the beginning of the season, many did not see the rise of Ohio State and Michigan State happening. Now they hold the top two spots in the conference. Before we look at how things will shake out, let’s take a quick refresher on the tiebreakers and how to get into the playoffs. Here are the tiebreakers in order:
| Order | Tiebreaker |
| 1 | Conference Record |
| 2 | Head-to-Head |
| 3 | Record vs common conference opponents |
| 4 | Point differential vs common conference opponents |
| 5 | Record vs common overall opponents |
| 6 | Point differential vs common overall opponents |
| 7 | Overall record |
| 8 | Overall point differential |
Since every conference team will eventually play each other, most ties will end at head-to-head. However, there can be scenarios that take us much deeper (just look at the ACC last season).
Now, for how the playoffs work. The top three teams in each conference will get an automatic bid into the playoffs. After that has been settled, then the last 4 teams will be voted in by a league-wide vote. After the field is set, seeding will begin. This season, the top 8 teams will be seeded and then they will get to draft their opening-round opponents (which I cannot wait to write content about).
I cannot predict which way the vote will go, so for these articles, I will be focusing on the automatic bids.
Current Standings
| Team | Overall Record | Conference Record |
| Ohio State | 7-0 | 4-0 |
| Michigan State | 5-2 | 3-1 |
| USC | 5-2 | 2-2 |
| Penn State | 3-4 | 2-2 |
| Michigan | 1-6 | 1-3 |
| Oregon | 0-7 | 0-4 |
The only tie is between USC and Penn State. The Trojans beat Penn State earlier this season, so they hold the tiebreaker.
Conference Title Race
The Big10 Conference Title race is over. Ohio State is the Season 21 Conference Champs. This is Ohio State’s fourth conference title in team history and the first since Season 6. Congrats to the Buckeyes.
Playoff Race
Ohio State has locked up the top spot, but the other two spots are still wide open going into the final week of play. Three teams have a shot at filling those spots.
Michigan State, USC, and Penn State are those three teams. Michigan State and Penn State play each other this week. If Michigan State wins, then the outcome is simple. Michigan State would lock up the 2nd spot, USC would take 3rd, and Penn State would be the first team out, hoping for a vote-in. This would happen even if USC lost their game since they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Penn State.
If Penn State wins and USC loses, it is also straightforward. Penn State would jump to 2nd place with a tiebreaker over Michigan State. The Spartans would finish in 3rd and USC would be praying for the vote-in spot.
However, Penn State and USC winning creates chaos. If that were to happen, all three teams would be tied with a 3-2 record in conference play. The head-to-head tiebreaker would not be useable since (in this scenario) Penn State beat Michigan State, Michigan State beat USC, and USC beat Penn State. Therefore, the tiebreaker would be points against common conference opponents. Here is a quick breakdown of where each team stands in conference point differential:
| Team | Point Differential in Conference |
| Michigan State | +25 |
| USC | +23 |
| Penn State | -24 |
This means Penn State would need to beat Michigan State by 25 points to jump them in point differential in conference play. The good news for all three teams is whoever finishes fourth is going to have great odds at a vote-in spot.
Michigan still has a chance at a vote-in spot despite a 1-6 record this season. Beating Ohio State in The Game might be enough to sway voters into letting them in.
Good luck to all the Big10 teams this coming week!
