By: Ryan Moreland (@ryanmoreland)
Texas A&M’s win over Texas this week sent the Big 12 into a chaotic scenario. This is by far the most complicated conference left in the league. Buckle in, this is going to get complicated.
Before we jump into it, let’s take a quick refresher on the tiebreakers and how to get into the playoffs. Here are the tiebreakers in order:
| Order | Tiebreaker |
| 1 | Conference Record |
| 2 | Head-to-Head |
| 3 | Record vs common conference opponents |
| 4 | Point differential vs common conference opponents |
| 5 | Record vs common overall opponents |
| 6 | Point differential vs common overall opponents |
| 7 | Overall record |
| 8 | Overall point differential |
Since every conference team will eventually play each other, most ties will end at head-to-head. However, there can be scenarios that take us much deeper (just look at the ACC last season).
Now, for how the playoffs work. The top three teams in each conference will get an automatic bid into the playoffs. After that has been settled, then the last 4 teams will be voted in by a league-wide vote. After the field is set, seeding will begin. This season, the top 8 teams will be seeded and then they will get to draft their opening-round opponents (which I cannot wait to write content about).
I cannot predict which way the vote will go, so for these articles, I will be focusing on the automatic bids.
Current Standings
| Team | Overall Record | Team Record |
| Colorado | 4-3 | 3-1 |
| Texas | 5-2 | 3-1 |
| Texas A&M | 5-2 | 3-1 |
| Oklahoma | 5-2 | 2-2 |
| LSU | 2-5 | 1-3 |
| West Virginia | 0-7 | 0-4 |
This is no typo. Right now Colorado holds the tiebreaker over both Texas and Texas A&M thanks to point differential against common conference opponents. This could be important if the three-way tie remains (more on that later).
Conference Title Race
The conference title race has come down to three; Colorado, Texas, and Texas A&M.
Colorado beat Texas A&M, Texas A&M beat Texas, and Texas beat Colorado. This means that if a three-way tie were to continue, head-to-head must be thrown out of the window. Here is a breakdown of where all three teams stand in conference point differential right now:
| Team | Point Differential in Conference |
| Colorado | +48 |
| Texas | +38 |
| Texas A&M | +2 |
If it comes down to this tie, the Aggies will need a massive week over LSU to move up. Texas would need to win by 10+ more than Colorado to pass them. This would be possible if all three teams win this week.
If one team were to lose, then the tiebreaker would go back to head-to-head.
There is also another scenario, where all three teams lose. This would tie them with Oklahoma. The Sooners have a +2 Point Differential in Conference play right now. This means they would need to beat Texas by a lot and have Colorado lose by a lot to get a conference championship.
Playoff Race
The playoff race is largely the same as the conference title scenario. Texas, Texas A&M, and Colorado just need to win to punch their ticket and make the postseason.
Oklahoma needs to beat Texas to jump into the top 3. However, there is a chance that Oklahoma will beat Texas and still finish fourth. For this to happen, Colorado would need to lose their Week 8 game to force the three-way tie. That tie would go back to point differential among common conference opponents.
However, If Oklahoma loses there is no way for them to finish in the top 3.
The good news for all four teams hoping for a playoff spot is that a vote-in spot will likely be used in the Big 12 this season. Now, the vote-in is never a guarantee and anything could happen. However, the odds look good for whoever finishes fourth.
Getting two vote-in spots is less likely, but could happen. If LSU pulls off the upset over Texas A&M, they could find themselves with enough late-season momentum to sway voters.
Good luck to all the Big 12 teams this week!
