By: Ryan Moreland (@ryanmoreland)
We are down to the final eight teams fighting for a CFSL National Championship. It is time to put on my homer hat and talk about how great these teams are. However, I am also putting on my hater hat. Buckle up!
#1 Auburn
Why They Will
Auburn is the top seed for a reason. They have only lost one game in the Jay Duke era. They dominate teams with physical play on both sides of the ball. The Tigers have the best rush attack in the CFSL, averaging 244.2 yards on the ground per game. And they likely won’t have to play elite rush defenses. Three of the top five rush defenses are already eliminated. The only two left are Miami and Auburn.
They have only allowed 26.8 points per game, which is the 2nd best in the league. They also have forced an impressive 19 turnovers. This team will grind you down on offense and force you into mistakes on defense.
Auburn is the team to beat and there is no question. And the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th seeds have already been bounced. This opens the road for Auburn to win their first National Title since Season 6.
Why They Won’t
First off, top seeds rarely win it all. A top seed hasn’t won a National Championship since Oklahoma State did it in Season 17. This stretch includes Auburn, who was the top seed last season and lost in the National Championship game.
Next, it is hard to beat great teams twice in the same season. The Tigers host Kentucky this week. Auburn won the first meeting 40-35, but it was a close game from start to finish. The Wildcats are going to give Auburn a tough game this week and we all know how great Kentucky is in the playoffs.
Lastly, if a team does slow down the run, they can force QB Jay Duke into mistakes. Duke is throwing far less than he did last season, but his interception percentage is far higher than in the past. Duke is throwing a pick on 3% of his attempts, which is the 8th worst in the league. If a team can get a few key turnovers then Auburn will be forced to play catch-up ball and abandon the run.
#5 Texas A&M
Why They Will
The Aggies are good at everything. They are top 10 in passing yards per game and rushing yards per game. If you sell out to stop one, they will beat you with the other. This is a deep and talented roster that doesn’t have many weaknesses.
Overlook the Aggies if you want, but they beat down Texas, Penn State, and Michigan State this season. Not just beat, but beat down. They beat those three teams by an average of 17 points. They have proven they can compete and beat great teams.
Why They Won’t
There are two key reasons why the Aggies won’t win this season. First, is the lack of playoff experience. This is only the fifth playoff game in Aggie history. It is the second playoff game for AD Kade Padgett. This team will have to get past teams and ADs with far more playoff experience.
Secondly, turnovers. This season Texas A&M has a -2 turnover differential. They struggle to protect the ball. Even though they have forced a fair amount of turnovers on defense, they are still in the negative thanks to an offense that struggles to protect the rock.
This is a great team, but their championship window isn’t open yet. Maybe next season Aggies.
#6 Miami
Why They Will
Miami is set to make a big run. The Hurricanes have a stifling defense that has only allowed 29.6 points per game. Miami is home to the best rush defense in the country. They have the third-best pass defense. Good luck moving the ball against the Hurricanes.
The offense is just as good. HB Bo Yost leads the 3rd best rush attack in the CFSL. But they aren’t a one-sided team. They still put up 384.3 passing yards per game.
They don’t turn the ball over much, they can beat you in several different ways, and they have a talented coaching staff. Who is going to stop them?
Why They Won’t
Look, no hard feelings toward the ACC, but the conference isn’t the SEC. Miami’s hyper-inflated numbers have come against teams that aren’t ready to compete for titles. Miami went 2-2 against playoff teams in the regular season. Miami just hasn’t proven that they are ready to compete with the best teams.
This week they will host a Florida team that beat Florida State twice this season. The same Florida State that dusted Miami in Week 8. Miami is good, but are they great?
#7 USC
Why They Will
The Trojans are the defending National Champions. They didn’t win the Big10 last season and still went on to win it all. They are poised to do the same here.
USC has the best defense in the league, allowing only 26.7 points per game. They have forced 19 turnovers, which is tied for the most of any team left in the playoffs. They have elite players at every level of the defense. There is no way to take advantage of the Trojan defense. That is why they will repeat.
Why They Won’t
Their offense. USC has great players on offense, but the sum total hasn’t blown anyone away. This is the second-worst-scoring offense left in the playoffs. They may not turn the ball over much, but that is because they are punting. They only convert on 39% of third downs, which is the worst of any team left. They are also the most sacked team in the league.
USC just isn’t the same team they were last season.
#8 Kentucky
Why They Will
Only idiots bet against Kentucky in the playoffs. Devan Davis is the CFSL’s version of Mr. October. His Wildcats always seem to hit a new level in the postseason. At this point, Devan is going to need to buy a bigger house to hold all that hardware.
Kentucky averages 42.7 points per game, which is the third-best of any team left. On defense, they only allow 30.8 points per game, which is the fourth-best of the teams left.
Kentucky has left tackle blocking ability at every position, and a boatload of playoff experience, and they are going to do what Kentucky does; Collect rings.
Why They Won’t
The only thing Kentucky loves more than winning is turning the ball over. That has to be true. How else would they have 21 turnovers this season? They are tied for the most turnovers in the league.
This week they have to get past Auburn, who already beat them once. Kentucky will be lucky to survive this week, let alone win the Natty.
#13 Alabama
Why They Will
The Crimson Tide is being overlooked. This is a great team. Let’s start with the disgusting pass rush. Alabama has 31 sacks this season, which is the second most of any team left. They can take a quarterback out of the game with this pass rush. Not to mention, their own QB is one of the best young QBs in the league.
This team is running the ball better than people think, they can air it out and score from anywhere, and they are great at getting after the signal caller. This is the recipe for Alabama’s first National Championship Game.
Why They Won’t
I have mentioned turnovers a few times already in this article, but if I could only mention it once, this is the team that would get it. Alabama has turned the ball over a league-leading 21 times. They have also struggled to force turnovers with their defense, only getting 12. This gives Alabama a -9 turnover differential, which is abysmal.
A team that can’t protect the ball and can’t force turnovers is not going to win the National Championship. This is a recipe for a quick exit.
#14 Florida
Why They Will
They say Florida produces speed and boy does that ring true for the Gators. No matter who the Gators have played this season, the opposing team cannot do anything to slow down the Florida deep ball. QB Jack Schmidt has been fantastic. He has had the league’s best QB rating all season long for a reason. He has 30 passing touchdowns and only eight interceptions.
They run the ball well, attack downfield, and convert on 3rd downs. Combine all that with an AD that is no stranger to playoff success, and you can see why the Gators are a lock to win.
Why They Won’t
This Gator defense leaves a lot to be desired. They are allowing 42.8 points and over 518 yards per game this season. These numbers are far worse than most of the teams left. While their offense can play with anyone, their defense can’t. And we all know that defense wins championships.
#15 Georgia
Why They Will
There is no team hotter than Georgia right now. They started the season rough, but they have won two straight, including a win over Florida, to get into the playoffs. Then they just bounced #2 Ohio State to start their playoff run. They beat both Florida and Ohio State by multiple scores.
The Bulldogs have the most sacks of any team left in the playoffs. They are top 10 in points allowed thanks to that pass rush. They don’t turn the ball over, they can hurt you both in the ground and the air, and they have an experienced QB.
Georgia has been Cinderella before, but this is the year they pay it off.
Why They Won’t
Simply put: they don’t have the offense to keep up with great teams. The Bulldogs average 17.9 first downs per game, which is by far the least of any team left. They have the lowest points per game and yards per game by any team left. There are too many great defenses left in the bracket for Georgia to win it all. Time to go home Cinderella.
