By: Jeff Melinyshyn (@jmel1125)
Well, by now if you are continuing to read this during a slump I thank you. I take great pride in everything I do and give it 100 percent. This was not a good week unless you faded my picks again, then I hope you can laugh in my sorrow. But alas, it is a new week and a monumental one for the league. I will be writing another article for Thursday. But if you are not keeping count, let me give you the ammo and the gun, I finished 6/6. Which I guess, is not terrible. Also, a second team has said it has used this article as bulletin board material. Which is more than Horn’s articles ever get.
Miami vs North Carolina
Undefeated North Carolina and Miami coming off a tough loss against USC to open ACC play. This was the hardest game to make a selection. My heart says Miami but the brain says North Carolina. I questioned Miami’s defense last week and they held USC to 34, their lowest point allowed this season. From week 1, I have said North Carolina is a title contender.
Sportsbook prediction: UNC (-5.5), O/U 74.5.
Jeff’s opinion: I am not touching the O/U and realistically this seems to be a toss-up game. I would tell people to take this one off and enjoy what magic will be played out on Twitch. But I am going to take North Carolina and stick to my belief of being a true title contender.
Pick ‘Em: UNC
USC vs Michigan State
Leave it to Oklahoma to crap the bed last week. It was like watching that one UFC fight where you know the dude is getting beat but was not knocked out and went all 3 rounds and got a nice beating out of it. Credit to Michigan State and Drake for showing out. I had doubts like maybe some in the league. Is this the time Drake and MSU put it together? USC had a very nice dub after a strange defeat the week prior. USC needs to win this one because they are in a 4 game-away stretch. Michigan and Ohio State await.
Sportsbook prediction: USC (-9.5), O/U 69.5.
Jeff’s opinion: I can see this O/U being one of the lowest of the week. Both teams have solid defenses. USC has the upper hand when it comes to offense. I would take the under and give USC another opportunity to rebound.
Pick ‘Em: USC
Penn State vs Ohio State
Penn State almost pulled off the upset against Texas. Ohio State meanwhile, beat Kentucky, who I picked and almost had it, until overtime. Give credit to Ohio State and Penn State respectfully. Ohio State has a pretty favorable final 4 games, outside of USC at home in week 6. Penn State meanwhile, needs to right the ship. Conference play can do just that. If Penn St loses, they may only be favored one time in the last 4 games, next week against Oregon.
Sportsbook prediction: Ohio State (-12.5), O/U 74.5
Jeff’s opinion: Zach may think that I just pick against him, he could be right on occasion. But I am riding with the team I was AD for a couple seasons ago. Penn State is winless and Smitty is good, but Ohio State may just have more dogs than State College at this moment. Play the over as well, as Penn State gives up the 2nd most points in the Big Ten.
Pick ‘Em: Ohio State
Georgia vs Kentucky
Georgia, I feel for you. Michigan State was there for the taking, but it was Week 1. Played well against Texas till a pick-six turned the momentum. I see Georgia not being the favorite outside of maybe a pick ‘em against Tennessee in Week 7. Kentucky has shown a lot despite being 0-3. New AD Eugene will learn from these close losses. Think if it is reversed they are 3-0. Kentucky has too many dawgs for the dawgs.
Sportsbook prediction: Kentucky (-16.5), O/U 72.5
Jeff’s opinion: This will be one of the biggest spreads of the week. I do like Kentucky with their offense against an undermanned bulldog defense. The O/U could be interesting. If you think mercy will happen, play the under, but I like the over, Georgia almost caught Texas sleeping.
Pick ‘Em: Kentucky
Auburn vs Florida
Auburn is in a stretch of 3 away games and is projected to be favorites in 3 of their last 4 games. I believe Alabama will be my favorite in Week 8 but many games left to go. Florida is 1-2 and could take a huge step forward with their first conference win. Auburn has not lost a conference game since the Iron Bowl in season 19. Florida has a tough schedule to close out the s22 slate. But two straight losses and you gotta wonder can they pull off upset no one saw coming?
Sportsbook prediction: Auburn (-12.5), O/U 73.5
Jeff’s opinion: One of the most interesting games of the week. The two teams are not too far away from each other in terms of points per game. Where things go awry is points allowed. Auburn is second in the conference in fewest points allowed, and Florida is the 3rd most points allowed. The talent disparity screams Auburn, but they have not been Auburn in past seasons and have not dominated a game yet. I am cautiously taking Auburn.
Pick ‘Em: Auburn
Oregon vs Michigan
I freaking called it last week. I took Michigan and they would probably lose, and they did in magical Michigan fashion. They are the most difficult team to understand. But I am still behind them this week, which means they are going to lose to Oregon, I can see it now. Oregon surprisingly is allowing the second-fewest points in the Big Ten, but is that because of the competition they have played or are they secretly good? If they lose this week I do not see Oregon being favored the rest of the season.
Sportsbook prediction: Michigan (-9.5), O/U 71.5
Jeff’s opinion: This is a game a couple of seasons back Michigan would win-handedly. But this is a different Michigan team. Oregon has some nice pieces and Theo Markos is always a problem but one person does not win you a lot of games. This could be a game where the over hits and no one would be surprised and also, the under can hit and no one would be surprised.
Pick ‘Em: Michigan
Colorado vs Texas A&M
A&M played a lot better than many thought last week. They hung in with an Auburn squad that is not looking like Auburn of the previous two seasons. They probably should have won if we are being honest. A&M needs to start hot out of the gate in conference play. Colorado continues to hang in games. I picked Colorado to upset Florida State and was a late interception thrown from potential overtime.
Sportsbook prediction: Texas A&M (7.5), O/U 72.5
Jeff’s opinion: My first upset pick. Colorado is a tough team and if they can figure out the passing game and get back to what they showed against Kentucky, they can win this conference. Maybe it is because I have called their last two games, but A&M is hurting for a win, Colorado gets a win, they move into a really good spot.
Pick ‘Em: Colorado
Tennessee vs Alabama
Another team mentioned this article as using it for bulletin board material, I love it! I am here for it, I encourage it. Giving back to the league is awesome. Tennessee has an uphill battle in a rivalry game. Alabama should win this game and remain undefeated. The out-of-conference battles are over.
Sportsbook prediction: Alabama (-13.5), O/U 73.5
Jeff’s opinion: Tennessee got a good win against a team on the same tier as them. In the grand scheme, Tennessee has not won a conference game since back in Season 12, which is before the time some of my readers were even here. This is a tough matchup against a team that, in my opinion, is on the tier with North Carolina. Take the High Tide in this one.
Pick ‘Em: Alabama
West Virginia vs LSU
West Virginia had a stinker of a game last week. I am not here to sugarcoat anything if you were expecting that, sorry to disappoint. Big 12 play starts and the ADs in the offseason were not high on WVU. LSU can start the conference play out strong and I expect a dub. But LSU needs to find their defense quickly.
Sportsbook prediction: LSU (pick ‘em), O/U 70.5
Jeff’s opinion: 4 points separate these two teams through 3 games in points scored. Where it gets tricky is the defensive side. 144 points were given up by LSU’s defense, the worst in the Big 12 and third most in the entire league. I may be the only one, but LSU losses, going to hard for them this season.
Pick ‘Em: LSU
Va Tech vs Notre Dame
Everyone loves a good underdog story and Notre Dame has been solid in that regard this season. I’m sorry, it stops here. Va Tech has playmakers at the important positions and it is hard to overlook. They could be a sneaky 3rd team in the top-heavy ACC. You never want to be in the vote for the playoffs. Winning this game is paramount for that dream.
Sportsbook prediction: Va Tech (-12.5), O/U 74.5
Jeff’s opinion: Notre Dame is giving up the second most points in the entire league. I know the outlier is West Virginia completely blowing their doors off. But you are not playing Tenn and WVU anymore. It gets real and in a hurry. Take Va Tech and the over. ND can still score.
Pick ‘Em: Va Tech
Oklahoma vs Texas
The 2,000th game in CFSL history will be played. Texas coming in season 3 thanks to the annoying Michael Buck. Oklahoma has had its fair share of bumpy history. What better way to celebrate than these two hated rivals? I cannot wait and I am rolling with Bevo.
Sportsbook prediction: Texas (-5.5), O/U 76.5
Jeff’s opinion: Oklahoma, man oh man. They could not buy a stop last week. This game appears closer than what I thought last week or even two weeks ago. Texas does have a freshman QB and being this is his first start in a rivalry game, is tricky. But Texas has shown more life. I like the over in this contest.
Pick ‘Em: Texas
Florida State vs Clemson
The last game of the first week of conference play is FSU traveling to Clemson. Florida State is rolling. They had the outlier against Ohio State that I know Pence wants back. That will fuel him for the rest of the season, which is scary. Clemson is good. I cannot deny that. What Wetzell has done in his second season is not going unnoticed by this writer. It is just a tough matchup.
Sportsbook prediction: Florida State (-17.5), O/U 77.5
Jeff’s opinion: Clemson is allowing the most points allowed in the ACC. Florida State is allowing the second-fewest in the ACC. The difference is not close. Florida State has a good opening ACC slate before UNC and Miami in the last two weeks. Clemson has a murderer’s row to open conference play. Take Florida State and the under.
Pick ‘Em: FSU
