Season 22 Big10 Report Card

By: David Ware (@davidware)

Anything Can Happen Each Week

The Big10 has been full of unknowns this season and any game can be a coin toss. So far Ohio State has led the way with a perfect season so far. Halfway through the season and so many questions still exist such as is Michigan back, can USC win another championship, is Penn State really an (0-4) team, and can Ohio State get their second straight perfect regular season.

USC Trojans

Current Record: (4-1)

1st Semester Grade: A-

The Trojans have had all five of their games be settled by one score or less including their seven-point loss to Auburn in Week 2. They have three solid wins against the Aggies, Hurricanes, Spartans, and Wolverines that show the Trojans can win yet another championship and maybe even their first Big10 title under Jacob Cobb.

Second half predictions:

USC will have to work hard in the second half of the season as they have Ohio State, Penn State, and Oregon. It could be possible that the Ohio State game could be the unofficial Big10 championship game. They need to be careful against Penn State and Oregon as they are set to be real trap games. The Trojans will win three more games in the second half and will be competing for the title.

Playoff Odds: 90%

Ohio State Buckeyes

Current Record: (4-1)

1st Semester Grade: B+

Ohio State has been battle-tested this year so far with a last-minute win against Florida State and an overtime win against Kentucky. While they have had some close games they do have the lowest strength of schedule in the league. They have a top-10 offense and defense so far this season and they look like they can continue to cause problems for the rest of the Big10.

Second half predictions:

The second part of their schedule looks like it could present some issues. USC, Oregon, and Michigan remain and all three of those teams are capable of putting some points on the scoreboard. I would love to say that they run the table, but I have to give them two losses before the season is over. They will be in a battle with USC for the Big10 title.

Playoff Odds: 85%

Michigan Wolverines

Current Record: (2-3)

1st Semester Grade: C

Michigan has only had one game where they left a lot lacking on the field and that was against Clemson in Week 3. Michigan had a very tough loss in Week 1 that went down to the final seconds. They had wins in Weeks 2 and 4, have the Wolverines feeling much better than last season. The loss to USC in Week 5 was still a tight game. Aaron Ike has this team performing closer to what we expected this season.

Second half predictions:

Everyone knows the Big10 is not filled with slackers and whoever wins the conference will have to earn it. Michigan still has Penn State, Michigan State, and Ohio State to play, and we will be able to tell a lot about the Wolverines with these matchups. Some of these games will be a coin toss and I don’t think that they can win all three-coin tosses. I think the Wolverines get two of the wins and will be fighting for the final automatic bid spot.

Playoff Odds: 50%

Michigan State Spartans

Current Record: (3-2)

1st Semester Grade: B

The Spartans have survived the first half of the season with two wins, and they have the fourth toughest strength of schedule so far. Their one-point loss to Virginia Tech and seven-point loss to USC has the Spartans on the verge of being a top team. The Spartans can for sure contend for the conference title but would need some help since losing to USC. Michigan State is in the top 10 in all the data points calculated for the report card.

Second half predictions:

Michigan State has a very high upside, but it will not be without some battles as they have Oregon, Michigan, and Penn State left to play. The Spartans are capable of winning out, but I think they walk away with one loss. They will be fighting for an automatic playoff bid for sure.

Playoff Odds: 75%

Oregon Ducks

Current Record: (3-2)

1st Semester Grade: C

The Oregon Ducks have had an up-and-down season so far. It started with two wins but has had two losses including a loss to Michigan to open up Big10 play. The win over Penn State did help them improve their grade. Their strength of schedule is ranked 22nd in the league. Oregon has to find some consistently and when they do, they can be dangerous.

Second half predictions:

Oregon has murders row in front of them with Michigan State, Ohio State, and USC left on the schedule. On paper, I am not sure they will win any of these games, but the Ducks always find a way for a late-season upset. With that being said Oregon will get one win to wrap up conference play.

Playoff Odds: 20%

Penn State Nittany Lions

Current Record: (0-5)

1st Semester Grade: D

Ok, it has been a rebuilding year for Penn State as they have 16 freshmen on their team. It may not have gone how they wanted, but if any AD can get a young team to win, it is TJ Smith. They have had two close losses against two very good teams in Florida and Texas, which shows they can compete. Don’t sleep on this team as they can and will be dangerous.

Second half predictions:

Penn State has Michigan, USC, and Michigan State left to play and I can see them competing in all of these games and pulling out one win. This is a one-off year for them and I expect them to be in contention for the Big10 title next year.

Playoff Odds: 5%

Big10 Nominees for a Vote-In Playoff Spot

I think there is a traffic jam at the top with Michigan and Michigan State fighting over the final automatic playoff spot. I strongly believe whoever misses out on the automatic spot will get the vote for the playoffs.