By: Ryan Moreland (@ryanmoreland)
I have been working on this project for a while, and I am glad to say I finally figured it out! Big thanks to Ware, who helped me figure out the algorithm.
So, what is this? The idea was to make realistic playoff odds based on how good each team is. This is difficult to quantify. Going by team overall only ignores how much coaching can impact a team. Going by results only can punish teams that have played stronger schedules. So, this algorithm attempts to take all of these (and more) factors into consideration. This is by no means an infallible system, but I think it does give us a close approximation.
Three factors determine a composite score. The first is your overall rating score. This is determined by how far above (or below) your team is from the average team overall rating. The second is a weighted schedule of schedule against the average. To calculate this we take your strength of schedule then add (or subtract) your opponent’s weighted strength of schedule. This gives us your weighted SOS against the average. We then take that against the average. That is added to your win percentage to give us the final stat. The last factor is the standard deviation of anywhere between +20 and -20. After all, luck will always play a part. If you played the exact same game 1,000 times, there would be close games and blowouts for both teams.
If you would like to learn more about how the system works, send me a DM.
I ran 1,000 simulations per game using this formula. Then counted the wins and losses to determine the percentage odds that a team has to win each game they have left on their schedule. We can then use these numbers to determine (approximately) how likely it is for teams to make and miss the playoffs. Here are the results.
Unfortunately, there are just too many variables with two weeks remaining for me to do it for every team this week (I will be doing it next week). However, I can do the possibility of each team to clinch a playoff spot this week. Let’s go
ACC
ACC Playoff Odds
| Team | Odds to Clinch in Week 7 |
| Miami | 82.4% |
| Virginia Tech | 53.1% |
| Florida State | 12.7% |
| Clemson | 0% |
| North Carolina | 0% |
| Notre Dame | 0% |
As you can see, Miami has great odds to pull off the playoff clinch this week. All they have to do is beat Notre Dame, which our system has an 82% chance of happening. They also have a 62.3% to win the conference this week. For that to happen they would need to win and Florida State would need to lose.
Virginia Tech has the next best odds. The Hokies need to beat the Clemson Tigers (which the algorithm gives them a 53% chance to do) and they are in.
Florida State is the only other team that can clinch a playoff spot this week. For that to happen they would need to beat North Carolina AND have Clemson lose to Virginia Tech. According to our system, there is just under a 13% chance that will happen.
All the other teams are still in the running, but they have no chance to clinch this week.
Big10
| Team | Odds to Clinch in Week 7 |
| USC | 87.1% |
| Michigan | 9.8% |
| Michigan State | 72.8% |
| Ohio State | 0% |
| Oregon | 0% |
| Penn State | 0% |
USC will punch their ticket with either a win or an Oregon loss. I first reported that they had already punched their ticket. However, if Oregon wins out and USC loses out, then Oregon could jump USC (the two teams play in Week 8). So, there is a small chance they could miss. But if either USC wins or Oregon loses, then this is no longer a possibility.
Michigan needs a win over Michigan State AND an Ohio State loss to Oregon this week to punch their ticket. Our system says that is not likely to happen, with only a 9.8% chance.
Michigan State only needs to beat Michigan to get into the playoffs. The system favors the Spartans, saying there is a 72.8% chance that will happen.
Ohio State and Oregon both still have playoff hopes, but they can’t clinch this week.
Big XII
| Team | Odds to Clinch in Week 7 |
| Texas | 71.7% |
| Oklahoma | 68.2% |
| Texas A&M | 62.7% |
| Colorado | 0% |
| LSU | 0% |
| West Virginia | 0% |
Texas could get in with a win or a Colorado loss. However, they play each other this week. So, Texas has a 71.7% chance of beating Colorado and getting an automatic playoff bid.
Oklahoma can get in this week with a win over West Virginia AND an LSU loss to Texas A&M. According to the algorithm, both are likely to happen. This leaves the Sooners with a 68.2% of making the cut this week.
Texas A&M will be rooting for Texas this week. They need to beat LSU AND Colorado to lose to Texas to get in. The odds are in their favor for this to happen.
Colorado, LSU, and West Virginia all still have a chance to get in the top 3, but they can’t do it this week alone.
SEC
| Team | Odds to Clinch in Week 7 |
| Alabama | 91.0% |
| Florida | 74.0% |
| Auburn | 49.9% |
| Georgia | 0% |
| Kentucky | 0% |
| Tennessee | 0% |
Alabama also has a small chance to not get in. They would need to tie Georgia and Florida and Georgia would need to beat Florida. However, an Alabama win or a Georgia loss this week would put them into the top 3.
Florida is in the same boat as Alabama. They can get in with a win or a Georgia loss. Their odds aren’t quite as good because the system predicts Alabama as the favorite in their game this week.
Auburn will get in with a win AND a Georgia loss. The odds of that are pretty good according to our system.
Georgia and Kentucky could still make the top 3, but they can’t punch their ticket this week.
