By: Ryan Moreland (@ryanmoreland)
In the Big10’s top spot is spoken for, but three teams are vying for the final two automatic bids. Before we dive into it, let’s take a moment to refresh you on the tiebreakers.
| Order | Tiebreaker |
| 1 | Conference Record |
| 2 | Head-to-Head |
| 3 | Record vs common conference opponents |
| 4 | Point differential vs common conference opponents |
| 5 | Record vs common overall opponents |
| 6 | Point differential vs common overall opponents |
| 7 | Overall record |
| 8 | Overall point differential |
Since every conference team will eventually play each other, most ties will end with a head-to-head. However, there can be scenarios that take us much deeper (just look at the Big XII last season).
Now, for how the playoffs work. The top three teams in each conference will get an automatic bid into the playoffs. After that has been settled, then the last 4 teams will be voted in by a league-wide vote. After the field is set, seeding will begin. This season, the top 8 teams will be seeded and then they will get to draft their opening-round opponents.
I cannot predict which way the vote will go, so for these articles, I will be focusing on the automatic bids.
Also, keep in mind that three-way tiebreakers are broken for the top team and then the two remaining games go back to head-to-head.
Current Standings
| Team | Overall Record | Conference Record | Tiebreaker Reason (if applicable) |
| USC | 6-1 | 4-0 | |
| Michigan | 4-3 | 3-1 | |
| Michigan State | 4-3 | 2-2 | Head-to-Head |
| Ohio State | 5-2 | 2-2 | Head-to-Head |
| Oregon | 3-4 | 1-3 | |
| Penn State | 0-7 | 0-4 | |
USC has clinched the Big10 Championship. This is their second conference title in school history and first since Season 10.
Michigan has the easiest road to getting in. A win over Ohio State OR a Michigan State loss to Penn State will punch their ticket. They could also get in if the three teams end up in a tie, but that could get murky (more on that later).
Michigan State gets in an Ohio State loss.
Ohio State needs to beat Michigan to get in since Michigan State holds the tiebreaker over Ohio State. If they win and Michigan State loses, then they are in. However, if Ohio State wins and Michigan State wins, then we will end in a locked three-way tie. That would make the tiebreaker point differential against common conference opponents. Here is where they stand right now:
| Team | Point Differential Against Common Conference Opponents |
| Michigan | +51 |
| Michigan State | +30 |
| Ohio State | -17 |
Michigan holds a nice advantage right now. However, keep in mind that they must lose and Michigan State must win for the point differential to matter. Also, keep in mind that this would only be used to break the tie for second place. So, if Michigan is the top team, then Michigan State and Ohio State would go back to a head-to-head tiebreaker, which would go to Michigan State. However, if Michigan State passes Michigan in point differential, Michigan could fall to third.
Lastly, let’s look at the odds for each team to make it into the top three based on the algorithm I debuted earlier this season.
| Team | Odds to Make the Top Three |
| Michigan | 83.2% |
| Michigan State | 56.2% |
| Ohio State | 30.6% |
Whoever misses is almost assuredly going to make the vote-in. As stated in an article last week, no four-win team has ever missed the playoffs in the current playoff system. All of these teams have four or more wins.
Oregon is also still in the running. They currently have three wins and a win over USC would nearly guarantee them a spot. However, with a loss their odds will be interesting. Also, Oregon could still get tie Michigan State and Ohio State for third place, but since they lost to both, they would not be able to win a tiebreaker.
