By: Ryan Moreland (@ryanmoreland)
The SEC has four teams still in the running and only three automatic bids to give out. Before we get into the scenarios, let’s look at how the tiebreakers work.
| Order | Tiebreaker |
| 1 | Conference Record |
| 2 | Head-to-Head |
| 3 | Record vs common conference opponents |
| 4 | Point differential vs common conference opponents |
| 5 | Record vs common overall opponents |
| 6 | Point differential vs common overall opponents |
| 7 | Overall record |
| 8 | Overall point differential |
Since every conference team will eventually play each other, most ties will end with a head-to-head. However, there can be scenarios that take us much deeper (just look at the Big XII last season).
Now, for how the playoffs work. The top three teams in each conference will get an automatic bid into the playoffs. After that has been settled, then the last 4 teams will be voted in by a league-wide vote. After the field is set, seeding will begin. This season, the top 8 teams will be seeded and then they will get to draft their opening-round opponents.
I cannot predict which way the vote will go, so for these articles, I will be focusing on the automatic bids.
Also, keep in mind that three-way tiebreakers are broken for the top team and then the two remaining games go back to head-to-head.
Current Standings
| Team | Overall Record | Conference Record | Tiebreaker Reason (if applicable) |
| Alabama | 7-0 | 4-0 | |
| Florida | 4-3 | 3-1 | Head-to-head |
| Auburn | 5-2 | 3-1 | Head-to-head |
| Georgia | 2-5 | 2-2 | |
| Kentucky | 0-7 | 0-4 | Point differential vs common conference opponents (-40) |
| Tennessee | 2-5 | 0-4 | Point differential vs common conference opponents (-70) |
Alabama has clinched a playoff spot, but they still need a win in the Iron Bowl to win the conference. If they can it will be their fourth conference championship in school history.
Florida can clinch a playoff spot with a win. The Gators can win the conference championship if they win, Auburn beats Alabama, and they win the tiebreaker (more on the tiebreaker later).
Auburn can punch their ticket with a win or a Georgia loss. They can win the conference with a win over Alabama and a Florida loss OR Florida wins and they win the tiebreaker.
Georgia has no shot at the SEC title, but they are still in the running for an automatic bid. They need to win over Florida and a Auburn win OR Auburn losses and Georgia wins the tie. The tie-breaker for a locked three-way tie is the point differential within the conference. Here is where they stand right now:
| Teams | Point Differential vs Common Conference Opponents |
| Alabama | +58 |
| Auburn | +53 |
| Florida | +21 |
| Georgia | -8 |
Keep in mind that for these tiebreakers to matter, Alabama would need to lose to Auburn and/or Florida would need to lose to Georgia. So, the lines are a lot closer than they appear.
Now let’s get into the odds. These are based on the algorithm that debuted last week.
| Team | Odds to Win Conference | Odds to Automatic Bid |
| Alabama | 58.1% | 100.0% |
| Florida | 12.9% | 75.0% |
| Auburn | 29.1% | 91.2% |
| Georgia | 0% | 20.7% |
Whichever team misses out is going to have a great vote-in chance, unless it is Georgia after a loss to Florida. The Bulldogs would still have a chance in that scenario, but it might be razor-thin margins whether they make it or not.
Tennessee also has a chance to get to three wins, which would put them in the hunt. However, they lack strong wins even if they beat Kentucky. So, their odds likely aren’t great even with the win.
