By: Ryan Moreland (@ryanmoreland)
There is one week left in the season, and still a lot of questions to answer in the ACC. Who will win the conference? Which three teams will get the automatic bids? What teams will get a vote-in? We will try to break down the possible scenarios and answer these questions.
Before diving into the conference, let’s refresh on how the tiebreakers work.
| Order | Tiebreaker |
| 1 | Conference Record |
| 2 | Head-to-Head |
| 3 | Record vs common conference opponents |
| 4 | Point differential vs common conference opponents |
| 5 | Record vs common overall opponents |
| 6 | Point differential vs common overall opponents |
| 7 | Overall record |
| 8 | Overall point differential |
Since every conference team will eventually play each other, most ties will end with a head-to-head. However, there can be scenarios that take us much deeper (just look at the Big XII last season).
Now, for how the playoffs work. The top three teams in each conference will get an automatic bid to the playoffs. After that has been settled, the last 4 teams will be voted in by a league-wide vote. After the field is set, seeding will begin. This season, the top 8 teams will be seeded, and then they will get to draft their opening-round opponents (which I cannot wait to write content about).
I cannot predict which way the vote will go, so for these articles, I will be focusing on the automatic bids.
Also, keep in mind that three-way tiebreakers are broken for the top team, and then the two remaining games go back to head-to-head.
Current Standings
| Team | Overall Record | Conference Record | Tiebreaker Reason (if applicable) |
| North Carolina | 5-2 | 3-1 | Head-to-Head Win |
| Miami | 6-1 | 3-1 | Head-to-Head Loss |
| Florida State | 2-5 | 2-2 | Point differential vs common conference opponents (+42) |
| Clemson | 4-3 | 2-2 | Head-to-Head Win |
| Virginia Tech | 4-3 | 2-2 | Head-to-Head Loss |
| Notre Dame | 0-7 | 0-4 |
The top of the leaderboard is as straightforward as a tie can be in the CFSL. Miami and North Carolina are tied, but North Carolina holds the tiebreaker. Therefore, North Carolina is the top team in the ACC right now.
The next tie gets more complicated. Clemson beat Virginia Tech, Virginia Tech beat Florida State, and Florida State beat Clemson. This creates a triangle that cannot be determined by Head-to-Head alone. Of the three teams, Florida State has the best point differential within the conference, which gives them third place. Clemson does have the worst conference point differential, but once the initial tie is broken, we go back to the top of the tiebreaker list. This means we go back to head-to-head, and Clemson beat Virginia Tech.
That gets us up to speed on how the conference stands right now. Now, let’s look at what could happen this coming week.
Conference Title Race
There are three basic scenarios (with smaller scenarios within them) that will determine the conference title this week.
The first is simple. If North Carolina beats Virginia Tech in Rivalry Week, then North Carolina will be crowned the ACC Champs and be guaranteed a top-four seed in the playoffs. In this scenario, the only team that could tie them is Miami, and they have the head-to-head win over Miami.
The second scenario is also pretty straightforward. If North Carolina loses to Virginia Tech and Miami beats Florida State, then Miami would win the conference as the only team to reach 4-1 in conference play.
The third scenario is utter chaos. If both North Carolina and Miami lose, then there is a guaranteed four-way tie for first place. If Clemson beats Notre Dame, it will be a five-way tie for the top spot. This would be a web that would be difficult to unweave. It would have to start with point differential within the conference, but it could go any direction from there. Here are the current conference point differentials in the ACC:
| Team | Point Differential Within the Conference |
| Miami | +58 |
| North Carolina | +56 |
| Florida State | +42 |
| Virginia Tech | +8 |
| Clemson | -6 |
Keep in mind that for this scenario to play out, Miami and North Carolina’s point differential will be lowering while the other three teams will be rising.
Playoff Race
The race for the top three mirrors that of the conference title race, but there are a few key points that we need to highlight. For this, there are four main scenarios.
Scenario 1: North Carolina and Miami win
We know this would make North Carolina and Miami the top two seeds. But it is also likely to make Clemson the third seed. All they would need to do is win, and they would be a game ahead of Florida State and Virginia Tech. If Clemson were to get upset by the Irish, then the three teams would be tied for third place, and the point differential within the conference would decide third place.
Scenario 2: North Carolina wins and Miami loses
North Carolina wins the conference, and Miami joins the tie with Florida State and Clemson (assuming Clemson beats Notre Dame). Virginia Tech would be a game behind thanks to the loss to North Carolina. This would be the ideal scenario for Florida State, since they would have wins over both teams. Miami beat Clemson, so the final standings would be FSU in 2nd, Miami in 3rd, and Clemson in 4th.
Scenario 3: Miami wins and North Carolina loses
In this scenario, Miami wins the conference, and North Carolina enters a tie with Virginia Tech and Clemson (assuming Clemson beats Notre Dame). Florida State would be a game behind them thanks to the loss to Miami. This would be a bad scenario for North Carolina, since they would have head-to-head losses to both teams. North Carolina would drop to 4th in the conference with Clemson in 2nd and Virginia Tech in 3rd.
Scenario 4: Both North Carolina and Miami lose
This is the wild one. Anything could happen in this scenario. All five teams could be conference champs, and all five could be in 5th place. There are far too many variables to get into every possible sub-scenario (there would be 25 without getting into detail). If you are a fan of chaos, then this is the scenario for you.
Before we go, I would like to mention the vote-in. As we all know, the vote-in is unpredictable for one person. However, based on my knowledge of previous seasons and what voters typically take into account, I can give you some educated guesses.
For four of these teams, I think win or lose this week, and they will be in the playoffs. I don’t see a scenario where the voters leave out 4+ win teams that battled in the toughest conference in the league.
However, this does not extend to Florida State. They only have two wins currently. In the modern playoff system, a two-win team has never made the playoffs. Looking at the other likely vote-in worthy teams, I don’t think it is realistic to think the Seminoles make the postseason without a win over Miami this week.
Best of luck to all the ACC teams this week!
