By: Ryan Moreland (@ryanmoreland)
Big10, I need to log a formal complaint. You were supposed to be one of the easy conferences. It looked so straightforward last week. What in the world happened?
Before we get into the nitty-gritty, here are the tiebreakers and how they work.
| Order | Tiebreaker |
| 1 | Conference Record |
| 2 | Head-to-Head |
| 3 | Record vs common conference opponents |
| 4 | Point differential vs common conference opponents |
| 5 | Record vs common overall opponents |
| 6 | Point differential vs common overall opponents |
| 7 | Overall record |
| 8 | Overall point differential |
Since every conference team will eventually play each other, most ties will end with a head-to-head. However, there can be scenarios that take us much deeper (just look at the Big XII last season).
Now, for how the playoffs work. The top three teams in each conference will get an automatic bid to the playoffs. After that has been settled, the last 4 teams will be voted in by a league-wide vote. After the field is set, seeding will begin. This season, the top 8 teams will be seeded, and then they will get to draft their opening-round opponents (which I cannot wait to write content about).
I cannot predict which way the vote will go, so for these articles, I will be focusing on the automatic bids.
Also, keep in mind that three-way tiebreakers are broken for the top team, and then the two remaining games go back to head-to-head.
Current Standings
| Team | Overall Record | Conference Record | Tiebreaker Reason (if applicable) |
| Oregon | 4-3 | 3-1 | Point differential vs common conference opponents (+33) |
| Ohio State | 4-3 | 3-1 | Point differential vs common overall opponents (+14) |
| Michigan | 4-3 | 3-1 | Point differential vs common overall opponents (+13) |
| USC | 2-5 | 1-3 | Point differential vs common conference opponents (+7) |
| Penn State | 4-3 | 1-3 | Point differential vs common conference opponents (-42) |
| Iowa | 3-4 | 1-3 | Point differential vs common conference opponents (-45) |
This conference is wild right now. Oregon takes the top spot thanks to having the best point differential within the conference. The tie between Ohio State and Michigan is harder to break. Ohio State and Michigan have the same point differential in the conference. We have to drop all the way to point differential on the season to break the tie, which Ohio State wins by a single point. This won’t matter after they play next week.
The tie between USC, Penn State, and Iowa is all about the points scored in the conference. Right now, USC has a distinct advantage here.
Let’s get into the scenarios.
Conference Title Race
The conference title will come down to The Game. There are three scenarios here, with an opportunity for each team to win the crown.
Scenario 1: Michigan beats Ohio State
If Michigan beats their bitter rival, then nothing else matters (for the conference title at least). Michigan will win and take the Big10 Crown.
Scenario 2: Ohio State beats Michigan, and Oregon beats USC
If this happens, then the Ducks will be your Season 23 Big10 Champs. It would create a tie between Ohio State and Oregon at the top of the conference, and Oregon beat them head-to-head.
Scenario 3: Ohio State beats Michigan, and USC beats Oregon
This would leave the Buckeyes by themselves at the top of the conference, making them the conference champs.
Playoff Race
No matter what happens this week, Michigan, Ohio State, and Oregon will be the top three teams in the conference. Their seeding could go any direction, but none of them can fall past three.
However, there is still the all-important vote-in process, and every other team in the conference could be in the running. Penn State has a good chance with four wins already and solid wins over Florida (who is also hoping to be in the vote-in process) and Michigan.
Iowa is more of an iffy team. They lack a big win on their resume and only have three wins. However, if they beat Penn State this week, then they would firmly be in the running.
USC is in a must-win scenario. Two-win teams don’t make the playoffs. A win over Oregon would get them to three wins with key wins over Penn State and Alabama. It would still be up to the voters, but their resume wouldn’t be bad.
Good luck to all of the Big10 teams as they head into rivalry week!
