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JTR QB Rankings: Season 19, Week Three

By: Ryan Moreland (@ryanmoreland)

What a week of football we had?! A lot of big movers on the board this week after some great performances by some guys that were toward the bottom of the list. Things are getting tighter and each position is going to be tough to hang on to from here on out. Let’s dive in.

How JTR Works

JTR ranks players by comparison to the league average using unbiased stats. By unbiased stats, we mean stats that don’t show a preference for one style of play over another. For example, we expect a quarterback in an air raid system to throw the ball more often than a quarterback in a multiple set. So comparing the two based on completions wouldn’t be fair. Once we determine stats that we believe to be unbiased, we create a league average. Outperforming the league average earns a player positive points. Stats that fall below the league average will earn a player negative points. Points for each stat are calculated and combined with a base rating given to each player. The combination results in a player’s JTR metric score. 0 is the worst possible score and 100 is the best possible score.

For QBs, the stats we chose to use are completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdown percentage, interception percentage, passing yards per game, and unique rushing index. The rushing index excludes sacks from a quarterback’s rush totals to get a more accurate sense of them as a runner. Also, QBs cannot take negative points from the rushing index (outside of fumbles). This is because a running ability for a quarterback is a plus, but not a requirement.

JTR is not a predictive metric. It cannot tell the future. It can only measure what a player has done up to that point.

JTR Leaderboard

Rank (Last Week)PlayerTeamJTR Score (Change)
1 (1)Noir RoyalIllinois91.849 (-1.253)
2 (4)Sam DobbinsMiami88.731 (+0.904)
3 (3)Sean KeohanePenn State87.731 (-2.290)
4 (2)Beau DaleFlorida85.455 (-6.040)
5 (5)Charlie SammonsLSU84.706 (-1.339)
6 (6)Zeus ClaydonFlorida State83.766 (-0.280)
7 (13)Jay DukeTexas80.388 (+8.198)
8 (20)Brandon Petty Georgia79.684 (+18.355)
9 (8)Avery WareAlabama77.237 (+0.195)
10 (11)Greg CookseyMichigan76.559 (+2.806)
11 (7)Baker ThomasAuburn76.188 (-3.422)
12 (9)Gunner RiceWest Virginia74.618 (-0.389)
13 (14)McKade AlberBoise State73.224 (+2.570)
14 (18)Claude DuBoisOregon72.694 (+6.416)
15 (19)Kolten PowellUSC70.893 (+8.872)
16 (10)Mateo WalkerKentucky70.291 (-4.096)
17 (15)Brantley GauciOhio State69.303 (+1.023)
18 (25)Andrei BelovPittsburgh69.014 (+11.075)
19 (17)Windham CarterBaylor66.579 (-1.332)
20 (23)JK MatthewsSyracuse64.467 (+4.792)
21 (30)Sky SandersColorado64.053 (+16.813)
22 (24)Ludwig FriedmanCincinnati63.395 (+5.355)
23 (21)Owen DartWashington61.482 (+0.714)
24 (26)Kyson CareyTennessee61.211 (+10.944)
25 (29)Luke CannonClemson60.950 (+11.865)
26 (28)Del ToroNotre Dame60.862 (+11.230)
27 (12)Kevin PriceNorth Carolina60.379 (-12.346)
29 (27)Terry OlliffOklahoma State55.696 (+5.639)

Findings

Starting with the table itself, we can see the bottom has risen significantly. This is something we have seen every season, but this is a little higher than normal for Week Three. That tells me the gap between the top and the bottom is closer this season than it was in seasons past.

I also thought it would be interesting to know if there is an age gap between the top and bottom of the leaderboard. However, I found out that there isn’t. This week’s top ten QBs have been playing for an average of 1.4 seasons. The bottom ten has an average of 1.3 seasons played. Experience may not play as big of a factor as many of us would like to think.

Now let’s get to the individuals. Illinois QB Noir Royal is going to be the first QB in Season 19 to hold the top spot more than once. He made his debut at #1 last week and a brilliant performance against USC will keep him there. Congratulations to this freshman phenom.

The largest rise in score (and this week’s cover photo) belongs to Georgia’s Brandon Petty. Petty threw for 647 yards and eight touchdowns this week! He also added 30 yards and a touchdown on the ground. This performance not only drastically improved his score, but also earned him his first CFSL victory. Other big improvers were Colorado’s Sky Sanders, Clemson’s Luke Cannon, and Notre Dame’s Del Toro.

Petty was also our largest jumper in ranking as well. He went from 20th to 8th this week. Other big jumpers were Colorado’s Sky Sanders and Pittsburgh’s Andrei Belov.

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