SEC Blog: Season 23, Week 7
By Cole Mantell (@LightningDragon)
There’s just one week to go! The SEC has been competitive as always this season, and once again, we have one game to decide it all. While the SEC might not have as exciting a playoff race as other conferences this season, we get one of the biggest games in SEC history for the second season in a row! Let’s dive in.
The One Big Story
Let’s start with the obvious talking point. The Iron Bowl is one of the biggest rivalries in the CFSL. All time, Alabama leads this series 11-5. That includes a dominant 56-17 win last season, which helped them win the SEC. This season, the stakes are the same. Whoever wins this storied rivalry wins the SEC, full stop. With LSU locked into the third spot in the SEC, the only playoff story is the biggest playoff story when it comes to the SEC. So strap in, because the hate is real and the conference is on the line.
For Auburn, the Tigers have been dominant again under AD Justin Duke. Duke has unfinished business in the playoffs, but since joining as the Auburn AD in Season 20, he is now looking for his third conference title in four seasons. Before he got to Auburn, the Tigers had only won the SEC once. For a program with so much history, this era of Auburn football is proving maybe the brightest, outside of that elusive National Championship. This will be a playoff atmosphere in Tuscaloosa Monday night, with everything on the line. If Auburn wins, they are likely the #2 or #3 seed. If they lose, they know all too well what a tough first-round matchup can bring after last season’s first-round loss to Colorado.
For Alabama, it is a midseason revival similar to Texas A&M last season. Looking back, Alabama may have had the toughest non-conference schedule in the country this season. After a few close losses, the Crimson Tide entered SEC play 0-3 and in a bit of trouble. Of course, under Alabama AD David Ware, the Crimson Tide rebounded once again and have put themselves back in position to win Alabama’s fifth SEC title in school history. After taking back the SEC last season, how sweet would it be to deny Auburn the SEC two seasons in a row? This game came down to the last rivalry game last season, and the script is the same for Alabama here, even if this time they likely enter this game as slight underdogs.
Both of these teams were the class of the SEC this season. They’ve gone a combined 8-0 against the rest of the conference, taking down team after team. Combined, the two teams have a net point differential this season of +207. The rest of the SEC combined has a net point differential of -219. In no small part, that’s because of the dominance of these two teams, locked once again in the greatest rivalry in college football.
What About the Vote-Ins?
So we have sufficiently previewed the Iron Bowl. And LSU is locked in at #3 in the SEC. What about the other three 2-5 teams of Florida, Georgia, and Tennessee? Right now, their cases are simple. All three teams cannot mathematically qualify for the automatic spots. Given the tight conference races around the CFSL this season, there is a good question whether any of the three teams will make the playoffs. But let’s quickly go over the pros and cons for each team as a potential vote-in candidate. Given that no two winning teams have ever been a vote-in team in the current system, we are assuming for each case for these three teams that they win their final game in Rivalry Week.
Let’s start with the most likely playoff candidate for a vote-in spot in Florida. Florida’s two wins so far are a 51-38 win over a solid Texas team and a 70-42 demolition of Tennessee. Both are good wins, and the Gators only have one loss of 20 or more points, which was to a Top 5 UNC team in Week 2. If they can beat Georgia convincingly, I think there are a lot of underlying numbers that support Florida’s case. They’ve got a lot of close losses that could go either way. That includes a 3-point loss to LSU, where if they had won late in that game, we’d be talking about the automatic playoff spot, Florida Gators. But I do think they need a great win over Georgia. Nothing close will work here, and Florida has to compete with a bunch of rivals in other conferences for the vote-in spots.
Tennessee is the most interesting case to me. Tennessee went 2-1 in the non-conference, with both of their wins so far coming before conference play started in Week 4. Their best win was over Iowa, which is a playoff candidate itself. However, Tennessee is in trouble when it comes to its big losses. They’ve lost big to Auburn, Florida, and Georgia for three weeks in a row. No one has played worse in the SEC in the last three weeks. They need a big win over LSU to have a chance here. The fact that Tennessee has lost to both Florida and Georgia will also work against them. But there is still a chance for the Volunteers.
Finally, there is the Georgia Bulldogs. It’s been an up-and-down season for UGA, but their hopes are still alive in Week 8. For UGA, the final two weeks are key. Georgia went 1-5 over the first six weeks this season, with only a win over WVU. To make the playoffs, the Bulldogs had to win big over Tennessee. They did, crushing the Volunteers 41-17. Now, Georgia must win their rivalry game with Florida big to have a chance. With a few big losses to Alabama and Auburn, Georgia needs to show it can finish their season with momentum to have a chance in voters’ minds. The close 63-56 loss to Oregon in Week 1 looms large as well, given where both teams are in the playoff standings right now, too. But the Bulldogs still have a chance, given the stakes in Jacksonville.
SEC Results Week 7
Alabama beats Florida, 49-37
Auburn beats LSU, 28-24
Georgia beats Tennessee, 41-17
SEC Schedule Week 8
Monday, June 23rd
Auburn vs Alabama (6:30 PM, Twitch)
Wednesday, June 25th
LSU vs Tennessee (6:15 PM, YouTube)
Thursday, June 26th
Georgia vs Florida (8:30 PM, Twitch)
Potential SEC Game of the Week
So, I’ve already talked at length about the answer here. The Iron Bowl will be maybe the biggest game in the regular season for the SEC ever. The storylines are awesome. So I will talk here a bit instead about the Georgia-Florida game in Jacksonville on Thursday. As one of the last rivalry games of the week, the playoff picture should be mostly decided by game time. For these two teams hoping for a vote in, both need to win big. Voters will not be nice to 3-5 versions of either the Bulldogs or Gators. To get into the playoffs, each team will be gunning for the big win. Bet the over, get ready for the fun.
